Sierra Weather Discussion

Flakes Will Fly

2012-02-10T21:09:00.000-08:00

A weak system will be over the area on Saturday and without any good forcing we should only see a dusting of snow to maybe an inch or two up top.

After a break in Sunday everything is still on track for a cold storm on Monday. This storm should bring us a quick 3-6 inches as the cold front pushes through. Then snow showers should continue into Monday night. By Tuesday morning we could have 6-9 inches at the base and 9-12 inches up top.

The next storm for Wednesday look like it may slide down the coast staying to our West. The next chance for snow will be next weekend as another cold trough tries to dig down the West Coast. The forecast models are not in agreement yet but it is still more than a week away. We could just get some light snow but the potential is there for a bigger storm on some of the models.

Temperatures will be cold on Monday in the 20's and then we rebound into the 30's by the end of next week. BA

Forecast Looking Much Whiter

2012-02-09T21:03:00.000-08:00

One more mild day Friday and then the weather pattern becomes more active as the ridge finally moves away from California. Saturday we have a weak system pushing in bringing colder air and light scattered snow showers. We may pick up an1-3 inches on the mountain by Saturday night.

The next storm dives in on Monday. This storm will have more moisture to work with and colder air. We should see a burst of heavy snow as the cold front pushes through during the day on Monday and then light snow showers behind it. Snowfall forecast is for 3-6 inches at the base with 6-9 inches up top by Monday night.

There will be another weak storm moving into the Pacific NW on Wednesday and we may pick up a few more inches on the South side of the storm. The ridge looks like it will move closer to the coast the second half of next week with a break in the action before retrograding again over the weekend.

There is the possibility of a stronger storm next weekend but still not sure how far South the heavy precip will push with this system. It is still far off so we will have to keep watching the track. The potential is there to get a decent storm.

Some of the forecast models continue to show the ridge out in the Pacific the week of the 20th allowing some bigger storms in. If anything the weather will be a lot more active and interesting it looks like in the coming weeks. BA

Several Inches of Snow Looking More Likely this Weekend

2012-02-08T20:48:00.000-08:00

We picked up a coating of snow from the storm that slid by to our West yesterday. We have 2 more days of sun before the pattern begins to change this weekend. There will be several storms coming into the West coast over the next 7 days bringing the possibility of several inches to the mountain.

The first system will be weak as moisture undercuts the ridge in place on Saturday. We should see some light snow showers adding up to and inch or two. Then on Sunday a slightly stronger storm dives in the from the NW bringing cold air and snow. Right now it looks like we could pick up around 6-9 inches of snow by Monday.

There will be another system pushing into the West coast Wednesday and again next Friday. The forecast models disagree on exactly how far off the coast the ridge will be placed. If the ridge is too close to the coast the storms may be kept just to our North. If the ridge is a bit further off the coast like some models suggest we could pick up several more inches Wednesday and Friday.

I will continue to update the forecast daily fine tuning the amounts for this weekend and snow chances for next week. BA

Snowing....

2012-02-07T19:14:00.001-08:00

Snow is falling on the mountain today. Light snow showers moved in early this morning bringing a dusting and we saw a little more light snow this afternoon. We are being brushed by a splitting storm that will head into Southern CA.

The sun will return on Wednesday along with temperatures in the 40's through Friday. Then the ridge begins to build off the coast out around 140w.

Starting Sunday several storms will come into the Pacific NW through the middle of next week. We will be on the Southern edge and how far West the ridge builds off the coast will determine how much precip will make it to Tahoe.

Right now it looks like a chance of some light snow Sunday, Tuesday, and again next Thursday. Colder light snow pattern is not the big storms we are looking for but we will welcome any snow. It may be the precursor to the ridge shifting further offshore the week of the 20th allowing some bigger storms in. BA

Some More Signs of Snow

2012-02-06T20:44:00.000-08:00

The storm moving onshore tonight is going to split with the best dynamics shifting South down the CA coast. Some of the forecast models bring the 3-6 inch line very close to Sierra but I would have more confidence in 1-3 inch snow amounts.

The ridge builds back in the second half of the week. Then over the weekend the ridge begins to shift West off the coast. That will open the door for some colder air to come down from the North and storms to come into the Pacific NW.

Depending on how far West the ridge shifts away determines how far South the storms could dive down the coast. Several models show a cold snow showery pattern setting up Sunday and into next week. The trend is in this direction so hopefully it continues and we will see more snow next week.

Looking long-range there is suggestion that the ridge continues to retrograde NW in the Pacific opening the storm door a little more. We will keep an eye on that and hope for good snowy second half to February. BA

A Little Snow in the For Tuesday...

2012-02-05T18:11:00.000-08:00

We have had some colder air over the weekend but quiet weather. We have had highs in the 30's with sun.

As we start the week we will have a storm approaching the coast on Tuesday. As the storm comes onshore it will split with the energy diving South into the Baja. That will weaken the storm so we should pick up some light snow showers. Right now it looks like a few inches are possible on the mountain.

Then the ridge rebuilds over CA keep the storms to our North. We will finish the week on a quiet note with temperatures in the 40's.

Next weekend it looks like we could undergo a slight pattern change with the ridge building off the coast. That could allow some storm to come down the coast bringing some colder air and shots of snow as we go into week 2. Stay tuned for updates all week on when the storms may break through next. BA

Cool With a Chance of Snow

2012-02-03T20:26:00.000-08:00

We have some colder air in place for the weekend with highs in the 30's and plenty of sun. Then a chance for some snow on Tuesday.

The ridge is building in over the West keeping storms from entering the country over the next few days. Then on Tuesday a storm approaches the coast and the ridge may break down enough to allow the storm to reach the Sierra before splitting.

Right now the forecast models are split on the storm making it to the Sierra. If the storm reaches us it looks like we could pick up several inches of snow, so we will watch the trend over the weekend.

After that the quiet weather builds back in and then towards the end of the week it looks like storms may begin to move into the West Coast again. Right now it looks like the storms may stay to our North but plenty of time for that to change.

Stay tuned and keeping the snow dances going. BA

Fresh Blanket of White Today

2012-02-01T20:21:00.000-08:00

A front moved through in the early morning hours and dropped a quick three inches of fresh snow over Sierra. It left a nice blanket of snow to refresh the slopes. We are hoping that the storms will continue to come in February.

The weather will be cool through the weekend with higs in the 30's and 40's on the mountain. The next chance for some snow will be next Tuesday as a storm approaches the coast and starts to split as it hits the ridge of high pressure in place. We will have to see how well the storm holds together to see if it can bring us several inches of fresh snow.

After that the forecast models are really struggling with the pattern. Some suggest storms try to break through again for the end of next week. Others suggest the weather gets quiet again into the following weekend. We are monitoring the MJO which is an area of convection moving through teh Pacific along the equator. As it progress East the substropical jet stream could tap its energy and break through storms under the ridge and into CA.

We will continue to keep tracking the possible storms for next week. Keep your fingers crossed and keep the snow dances going. BA

A Little Snow Possible Tonight...

2012-01-31T20:51:00.000-08:00

The final storm moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight before the ridge moves in looks like it will bring us a dusting of snow. Most of the models show only a enough moisture for a light dusting but the lastest Euro shows the possibility we could see a couple inches on the mountain.

Starting Thursday the ridge really starts to build in strong up the West Coast for about a week of quiet weather. The temperature through the weekend look like they will be in the 40's with lows overnight in the 20's.

The next break through of storms looks like it could be around the end of next week or into the following week. The ridge will block storms until then but the forecast is for the ridge to shift North possibly allowing the storms to break underneath by mid-month. Until then it looks like the temperatures will stay seasonal and the sun will shine.

This is the weather so things can change quickly. Stay tuned...BA

Could See a Flake or Two this Week

2012-01-29T16:42:00.001-08:00

There will be 3 storms moving into the Pacific NW over the next few days. Those storms will brush us on their Southern edge bringing clouds and maybe a flake or two. Not expecting more than a possible dusing as there will not be much moisture moving through.

The weather will become quiet for the second half of the week and into next weekend with sun and highs in the 40's. Ridging will be building in over the West keep the storm activity up into Alaska.

The forecast models are not as accurate more than a week out but looking at the overall pattern it looks like we could have some changes for week 2. The ridge will amplify North into Canada and the door could open to some storms starting around the 7th/8th.

We will continue to watch for the potential change in the pattern all week. Long-range models suggest that the second half of February could be stormy. BA

A Couple Chances of Flakes this Week

2012-01-27T21:07:00.000-08:00

The weather will be nice over the weekend with sun and highs in the 40's. Then on Sunday night a storm moving into the Pacific NW could brush us with a few flakes or a dusting.

Monday and Tuesday we continue the nice weather with sun and cool temps. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday we have the chance of another dusting as we get brushed with snow showers by another storm moving by to our North.

After that the weather looks quiet into next weekend. We continue to watch for the possibility of storms undercutting the ridge off the coast 2nd week of February and coming into CA. Right now this looks like our next shot of getting some decent snow.

Until then stay tuned for any changes and for updates...BA

Quieter Weather Returns

2012-01-26T20:01:00.000-08:00

After several feet of snow this past week the weather has quieted down this week. We have a front moving through tonight that will bring clouds and maybe a few flakes up top. Then the weekend will be quiet with sun and highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's.

A storm hitting the Pacific NW on Sunday will bring the chance of some light precip Sunday night. Right now it looks like we will get a dusting to maybe an inch.

The rest of next week the weather looks to stay quiet as the ridge sits off the coast keeping the storms to our North. It looks like the next chance we could see some bigger snow will be the week of the 6th. That could always change, stay tuned...BA

The Tally...

2012-01-24T21:36:00.000-08:00

We picked up another 4 inches yesterday bringing the 5 day total up to 54 inches up top. All this snow has allowed us to open a lot more terrain and conditions are the best so far this season. The sun is out now with beautiful weather to enjoy the new snow.

The quiet weather will continue for Wednesday and Thursday before a storm hitting the Pacific NW on Friday could bring a cold front through with some light snow showers. Then the weekend should be nice weather again.

Next week it looks like we could see another weak system on Monday with the chance for some light snow showers. Then for mid-week the forecast models diverge on whether we will see the chance for another weak system or a stronger one that could bring accumulating snows on Wednesday. We will continue to watch over the next few days. BA

Another 2 Feet!

2012-01-23T20:05:00.000-08:00

We picked up 22 more inches in the past 24 hours on top of the 28 inches since Thursday. That brings the storm totals up to 50 inches so far and the snow continued to fall for most of the day. We will tally up the final number in the morning but we picked up the 4-5 feet we were expecting.

The rest of the this week the sun will return for some beautiful weather to enjoy the new snow. Next week it looks as if a couple of cold shots with some light snow are possible with some storms sliding in to our East.

We will look a possible stormy stretch again the 2nd week of February if the block forms over Western Canada pushing th storms underneath again. Stay tuned. BA

The Snow Keeps Falling...

2012-01-22T20:00:00.000-08:00

We picked up another 10 inches during the day on the Saturday bringing the 3 day storm totals up to 29 inches. Then snow began to fall again this morning ahead of the next big storm that could double the totals. We picked up several more inches during the day today.

The heaviest snow should push in after midnight tonight and last into Monday morning. Snow showers should linger before tapering off Monday evening. Snowfall forecast looks to be on track for 15-21 inches at the base and 23-27 inches at the summit by Monday night.

Total snowfall for the 4 day period should be 4-5 feet by the Tuesday morning snow report. Then beatiful Tahoe bluebird weather to finish out the week. BA

Powder....

2012-01-21T20:59:00.000-08:00

We picked up 11 inches at the Summit as of noon today on top of the 8 inches from Thursday night. That brings the 2 day total to 19 inches. More snow on the way the next 2 days.

The next storm will move in during the day on Sunday. It looks like the heaviest snow will fall overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with snow showers lingering into Monday night. This storm is not as strong as the last one but we may pick up twice as much snow since the storm will be colder and all snow.

By MOnday night we may see an additional 12-18 inches at the base and 18-24+ inches at the summit. That would bring the 4 day totals to 3-4 feet up top. That will make the conditions the best of the season so far.

Starting Tuesday it looks like the storm track will shift North into the Pacific NW through the end of the week. Beyond that the forecast models diverge with some showing a cold snowy pattern setting in and others showing a prolonged quiet period. We'll take a closer look after some more big snow the next couple days. BA

Rain Turns To Snow Overnight

2012-01-20T22:24:00.000-08:00

We picked up 8 inches from storm number one Thursday night into Friday.

Ahead of the big storm moving through Friday nighth the snow levels have come up above 8000 ft. As the cold front pushes through around midnight the temperatures and snow levels will fall. Still expecting up to a foot of snow at the base with 1-2 feet at mid-mtn and 2-3 feet at the summit by Saturday night.

The snow showers will continue through most of the day on Saturday. Then a brief break on Sunday before a colder storm moves in later on Sunday. This storm will bring snow into the day on Monday. Total snowfall looks to be 1-2 feet with this one.

After that it looks like the weather will become a little more tranquil to finish out the week. Snow totals in the morning. BA

It's Dumping!

2012-01-19T21:33:00.000-08:00

It starting snowing this afternoon and it's going to continue through the weekend and into Monday. We will be measuring it in feet and it's about time. The first storm tonight looks to drop 4-8 inches at the base and 8-12 inches at the summit by Friday morning.

The strong storm for tomorrow night still looks to be on track. It will be all snow on the upper mountain and may start as rain briefly at the base. By Saturday morning the snow levels will have dropped to the valley floors. Plenty of moisture behind the front keeping snow showers going through the day on Saturday.

Great agreement among the models that 2-3 inches of liquid falls through Saturday. With the mix to start at the base we'll say 15-20 inches by Saturday night and 20-36 inches on the mountain, the higher end at the summit.

There will be a break on Sunday before the next colder storm moves in Sunday night into Monday. Total liquid on the latest model runs is around an inch but the snow ratios will be higher with the colder air. Could see another foot at the base through Monday and up to 18 inches at the summit.

Total snowfall for the period by the Tuesday morning snow report should be around 2-3 feet at the base and 3-4 feet on the mountain, maybe up to 5 feet at the summit by Monday night.

By Tuesday the ridge builds in off the coast as the trough digs to the North of Hawaii. That pushes the storm track back up into the Pacific NW. The base and conditions should be looking really good by Tuesday. BA

Snow is Less than 24 hours Away

2012-01-18T20:34:00.000-08:00

Not many changes on the forecast below from yesterday. Only changes are to slow the storm arrival Sunday until Sunday night and possibly cut the snow amounts in half for that storm if the latest GFS model is right. Also the storm for next Tuesday looks like it will stay to the North.

Other than that we are on track to pick up 2-3 feet on the mountain through Saturday beginning Thursday afternoon with possibly up to 4 feet at the summit. Then several more inches to a foot for the Sunday night into Monday storm. More details in the post below. BA

Here Comes the Snow!

2012-01-17T21:03:00.000-08:00

We have waited more than long enough for the snow to arrive and it is almost here. We will pick up quite a bit of snow and it could be enough to open most of the terrain by this time next week.

The snow should begin to fall by Thursday afternoon. By Friday morning we are looking for around 6-9 inches at the base and 9-12 inches at the summit from storm number one.

A bigger storm moves in on Friday lasting into Saturday with lots of moisture. A little bit of forecast model disagreement on the total precip and on the snow levels. Right now it looks like the snow levels may briefly rise just above the base lodge Friday night before falling Saturday morning.

We could pick up a foot and a half at the base once it turns back to snow and up to 3 feet at the summit through Saturday. That brings the storm totals up 2 feet at the base lodge and up to 4 feet at the summit.

Sunday we have another big storm that is colder with snow levels down to lake level. This storm looks like it could bring 1-2+ feet of snow to the entire mountain. Then there is another storm for Tuesday into Wednesday that could bring several inches or more.

Total snowfall through next Wednesday looks like we could hit 4-5 feet at the base lodge and 5-7 feet at the summit. These amounts could still increase or decrease but that is the best estimate as of today's forecast model runs. BA

How Much Snow is on the Way?

2012-01-16T20:33:00.000-08:00

Most of us now know that the snow is on the way so let's take a look at the potential snowfall amounts over the next 10 days.

The first wave moves in Wednesday and looks light with maybe a few inches of snow on the upper mountain. Then some heavier precip arrives on Thursday. We could see 6-9 inches of snow on the mountain by Friday morning.

The next wave moves in on Friday and lasts into Saturday. We could see the snow levels come up to 8000 ft. at the onset and then fall below the base by Saturday morning. The summit could pick up 2-3 feet of snow with lesser amounts at the base. At the base it depends on how fast the snow levels fall but I still think we could pick up a foot or more.

A third wave moves in on Sunday. This wave is much colder and could drop 1-2 more feet on the mountain by Monday. There is another wave behind that for Tuesday into Wednesday that could also drop another foot or more.

All told over the next 9 days we could pick up 4-7 feet on the mountain. The details could change over the next few days so stay tuned. But the fact that big snow is finally on the way will not. It's finally our turn for some big snow and the mountain should look a lot different a week from now. BA

The Dry Spell Ends This Week...

2012-01-14T21:03:00.000-08:00

Things are starting to become more clear on the storms coming for later this week. We will start the week off with maybe a snow shower and lots of cold as a cold front pushes through Sunday night.

After a quiet start to the week we should see the first storm approach on Wednesday. Expect increasing clouds and wind and then the precip could start falling by Wednesday night. The first storm Wednesday night into Thursday looks like it could bring several inches of snow.

Then there is another storm for Friday into Saturday. This storm is looking pretty big but the snow levels will come up for the first half of the storm. On the upper half of the mountain above 7500 ft. we could see several feet accumulate over the 2 day period. On the lower half we will see less but how much isn't certain until we fine tuned the snow levels.

The final storm moves in around next Sunday into Monday and looks like it could be colder than the previous 2 storms. It's too early to talk amounts on this storm but right now it looks like it could drop a couple feet of snow.

It's still early so we will fine tune the details of the storms as we get closer. No matter what falls it will be exciting after the prolonged dry spell. Stay tuned...BA

Some Early Details on Upcoming Storms

2012-01-13T19:50:00.000-08:00

So now only 5 or so days out from the potential onset of storms we can look at some more details. We will start next week cold from a cold front that goes through Sunday night. Then we will warm a little as the first storm approaches on Wednesday.

Right now it looks like the first storm will move in around Wednesday night with snow levels of 7000 ft. The storm looks to be about moderate in strength with over a foot possible above 7000 ft. on the mountain. The storm should last through Thursday.

Then another colder and stronger storm arrives sometime on Friday with snow for the entire mountain, possibly a couple feet. Then a third storm which could be the coldest and strongest would arrive next weekend.

By the end of next week we could have several feet of fresh snow with chances that the pattern could continue into the following week. Stay tuned for continued daily updates as we get closer to these long-anticipated storms. BA

Colder and Unsettled Weather Arrives this Weekend

2012-01-12T21:00:00.000-08:00

We will continue to watch for storms next week but before then we will have some changes in the weather. The weather will turn a little colder by Monday as a cold front pushest through Sunday possibly bringing some light snow showers to the mountain. The weather stays cold to start next week and then warms a little as storms approach the coast.

The latest forecast models continue to not be in 100% agreement yet on the track of the storms for next week. The storms will start to our North at the beginning of the week and then the majority of the models bring the storms further South in to Tahoe by Thursday. There are still a couple of models that suggest the storms stay just to the North until the weekend.

The jetstream coming across the Pacific will be strong so if the storms come far enough South next week it could mean significant amounts of snow. We will keep you updated daily as the storms get closer. Until then the snowmaking conditions will improve this weekend with tranquil weather. BA

Almost Time to Talk Snowfall Amounts

2012-01-11T20:41:00.000-08:00

The forecast models continue to be in good agreement and consistent on the storms finally arriving next week. The storms will start in the Pacific NW this weekend and then work down the coast through next week.

We should see light snowfall begin as early as Tuesday night and then continue into Wednesday before some stronger storms arrive Thursday and into the weekend. It's still too early to talk snowfall amounts as we are watching where the exact storm track will setup.

We will see colder air move in on Sunday with a cold front and we could even see some light snow. Then it will be quiet and cold Monday and Tuesday before the snow arrives mid-week.

Depending on the storm track we could see moderate or significant amounts of snow. The pattern looks to continue for at least a week so we could start to recover and build a nice base. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the details and potential snowfall for next week....BA

Storm Chances Looking Better for Next Week

2012-01-10T20:57:00.000-08:00

The weather has been quiet so far this season with the ridge off the West Coast blocking storm activity. That ridge has finally shifted North away from the coast and the chances for storms is increasing.

The forecast models continued to come more into agreement today with regards to the storm track next week. The pattern change is underway with the ridge shifting North already. The ridge will build over Alaska by the weekend shifting the jet stream that has been hitting up there South downt the West Coast.

The question has been where will the blocking with the ridge setup exactly up near Alaska for next week. A littel too far West and we just get the Southern edge of the storms to the North. Over Alaska and into Western Canada the storm track would be further South into CA.

Today a majority of the forecast models showed the storms moving into CA starting next Wednesday and lasting through the following weekend. It is still too early for this to be set in stone. We should have a better idea by the end of the week. But the overall pattern in the Pacific is changing and things are becoming more favorable for storms to finally push in.

If today's forecast models were to verify then we would be measuring in feet next week. Stay tuned for updates as we continue to take a look at the position of the jet stream and storm track for next week. BA

Next Week....

2012-01-08T16:28:00.000-08:00

The storm and cold front moving in from the Northwest on Tuesday is now going to split. That will keep the weather quiet this week but will cool the temperatures into the 40's. Overnight lows will be colder as well this week with better snowmaking conditions.

All eyes are on next week as the pattern is shifting in a way over the Pacific this week that could lead to big storms next week. The ridge that has been sitting off the coast for the past month will be moving North and then reforming up near Alaska. The big question is where will it be next week.

We would like to see the ridge to the South and East of the Aleutian Islands which would push the storm track down into CA and allow cold to come in from the North as well. The forecast models are putting the ridge anywhere from just South of the Aleutians, to over Alaska, or over the Bering Sea.

If the ridge is over the Bering Sea that would be a little too far North and West and the storm track would most likely stay just to our North. Over Alaska or further South the storms could come right into CA and we could pick up several storms with some good snow next week.

The forecast models continue to go back and forth on the final solution which is normal when there is a big pattern change coming. We will continue to watch this week to see what my happen. We should have a much better idea by the end of the week. BA

Colder Air and Light Snow Possible Wednesday

2012-01-07T20:47:00.001-08:00

The ridge of high pressure off the coast will begin to move North on Tuesday which will allow colder air to dig South through the area from the North. As the cold front goes through on Wednesday we may see a few snow showers. Not expecting more than a dusting right now.

High temperaturs will only be in the 40's on Wednesday with some colder nigth time temps in the 20's. Then the pattern over the Pacific continues to change and the storms get jammed up for the end of the week. That will return the nice weather and highs in the 40's on the mountain.

A ridge is going to form in the North Pacific next weekend and the placement is crtitical. Too far West and the storms could stay to our North, too far East and we could get a lot of precip but with high snow levels. If it sets up just right out around 160w we get a train of snowstorms through the third week of January.

We have been watching for a pattern change to start this week and it will. Stay tuned as we watch how things develop this week. Things could be a lot more interesting by this time next week. BA

Things Continue to Look Good in the Long Range

2012-01-05T20:12:00.000-08:00

We've been talking about the pattern change coming next week and now forecasters across the country are starting to jump all over it. We most likely still have about 8-10 days before the flakes start flying but the changes will begin on Monday.

Starting Monday the ridge that has been off the coast blocking storms for the past 6 weeks will shift North in the Pacific. By the end of the week the forecast models have the ridge South of the Aleutian Islands and then pushing into Alaska by mid-month.

We have see this pattern before and what happens is that the storm track is pushed South down the West Coast under the ridge. We have not seen blocking in the North Pacific yet this season thanks to the positive Arctic Oscillation but it is now heading negative.

When blocking sets up it usually not only means snow but a prolonged period of storms hitting the West coast. We will be monitoring this developing all week. Right now the second half of January looks like it could be quite cold and snowy. Stay tuned. BA

What Will January Bring?

2012-01-04T19:47:00.001-08:00

We continue to watch the forecast models for next week as the new pattern evolves over the Pacific. For the next week or so we will see fair weather with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's.

Next week the forecast models continue to show the ridge that has been sitting off the coast for over a month shifting Northward and then inland into Canada by the end of next week. Meanwhile another ridge forms near the Aleutian Islands and then pushes into Alaska and Western Canada.

The first affects should be colder air coming down the coast by the end of next week. Then as we head into the week of the 14th we will hopefully see the storms start to hit CA coming across the Pacific under the ridge in the North Pacific. Stay tuned...BA

Forecast Models Continue to Show Pattern Change

2012-01-03T21:16:00.000-08:00

Fair weather for about 10 more days as the ridge off the coast shifts North starting this weekend and then inland to our North next week. Temperatures will remain in the 40's through the period with Sunny skies.

Then the second half of next week the ridge begins to rebuild in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands or over Alaska. The first thing this will do is allow the Arctic air building over Canada to drop South into the West. So we should start to see colder temps.

Then as we go into the following weekend the storm door should open. If the ridge sets up in the North Pacific by the end of next week and into the following week we should see a prolonged period of snow storms coming under the ridge from the 14th into the third week of the month. Stay tuned...BA

Changes are Coming...

2012-01-02T16:00:00.000-08:00

The ridge is still with us pushing the storm track up into Canada and keeping the weather tranquil. Highs this week on the mountain will be in the 40's with lows in the 20's. There will be some inversions so the snowmaking may be kept to the lower half of the mountain.

The ridge sitting off the coast will move inland next week and then a new ridge will form further North in the Pacific towards the Gulf of Alaska. That will allow some cooler air to move in from the North on Monday. Then that ridge moves inland over Cananda towards the end of next week with a new ridge forming further North near Alaska.

The weather next week looks to stay quiet as the pattern change starts taking place over the Pacific. Towards the end of next week and into the weekend we should see lots of cold start to pour in if the ridge sets up near Alaska. We should also see the storms start to move in underneath the ridge.

We will continue to monitor the pattern change next week. If everything goest right we could see a barage of storms from around the 14th into the third week of the month. Stay tuned...BA

Big Changes Lurking in the Long Range

2011-12-31T21:29:00.000-08:00

The weather is going to remain pretty quiet over the next ten days but then we should start to see some changes. We will stay in the same pattern we have been in this week with the ridge off the coast keeping us dry. We may see few flakes on Friday with a storm brushing us to the North.

Then we look to week 2 where it looks like some major changes may happen in the pattern over the Pacific. Forecast models over the past few days have been consistent in ridge building out around 150w starting around the 10th. That would replace the ridge off the coast with a cold trough down the West Coast.

It is still too early to say that the pattern change is definite but it is looking better with each day. If the ridge sets up further out in the ocean near 150w it would allow Arctic air to pour down the West Coast and most likely bring some cold storms down the coast. The pattern we hope for is for the ridge to setup far enough North in the Pacific near the Aleutian Islands so that some better moisture can come under the ridge into the West Coast.

So for now we just have to enjoy the nice weather and wait about 10 days or so to see what the pattern change brings. BA

January Forecast is Looking Better

2011-12-29T20:30:00.001-08:00

We may actually see a flake of snow with the system brushing by to the North on Friday. Then the weather is quiet for the weekend and into the first half of next week with highs in the 40's.

The weather models are coming into some more agreement that we could pick up several inches from the storm next Friday. The ridge look like it will move East and opens the door to a storm briefly on Friday before the next ridge builds back in off the coast. The European forecast model is most aggressive with this storm and the GFS sees it too. Right now it looks like we could see a few inches of snow so we will watch the progress over the next several days.

So far this month we have been hoping that the strenthening jet stream in the Pacific would at times push far enough South to bring snow by flattening the ridge, or the ridge would pull away from the coast briefly. That is happening this week but the heavy precip is only making it as far South as Northern CA.

We need to get the ridge away from the coast and out North of Hawaii, and even better would be near the Aleutian Islands. There are a few things that looks like they could come together around the 2nd week of January. We will watch the ridge retrograding out towards Hawaii, then the cold building over Canada pushing South down the West Coast.

Today's GFS forecast model a blocking ridge forming again from the Aleutian Islands into Alaska and Northwest Canada. That would force the storm track South into California. We will watch to see if this pattern continues to develop over the next 10 days. If a block like that were to develop it could mean an extended period of storms and snowfall. Stay tuned. BA

January Looking Better for Snow

2011-12-28T19:51:00.000-08:00

The storm hitting the Pacific NW on Friday may bring a quick snow shower to the mountain. Next week the ridge will start to push further up the West Coast keeping the Tuesday storm to our North. Then there is quick retrogression of the ridge the middle of next week allowing the Friday storm to dig a bit further South.

The models have been taking turns showing this storm coming far enough South to bring snow. Today's Euro dug it far enough South to bring several inches of snow. We will have to continue to watch the possibility of a little snow over the next few days. It then looks like the pattern slows and the trough digs North of Hawaii.

Next week is when the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) enters the Western Pacific and we would expect to see the ridge start to pull away from the coast the following week in response. There is plenty of cold building over Alaska and Canada and that cold will pour into the trough South of the Aleutian Islands and the East Coast next week. Then we will watch for the ridge to shift out in the Pacific to a position between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands. That will allow the cold to shift into the West.

We have been talking about this scenario possibly coming in January with the cold pushing down the West Coast from Alaska pushing the jet stream further South. The GFS as well as the European forecast models are showing the retrogression of the ridge away from the West Coast and out to 150w with a trough down the West Coast the second week of January. That would open up the storm door into the West coast.

We will continue to watch for the storms to return as we move towards the second week of Winter. BA

Keeping an Eye on Next Week

2011-12-27T19:35:00.000-08:00

We will have a very active weather pattern to our North this week. We will be right on the Southern edge of the storm track which means we could see a few flakes up top from the storms pushing by. The best chance will be on Friday with the storm dipping a bit further South.
For the most part this week the weather will be nice with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's at night allowing for snowmaking at the bottom. There will be inversions up top with temperatures above freezing.

Next week there are 2 storms hitting to our North, one on Tuesday and the other on Friday. The first storm looks like it could brush us with a few flakes and the second storm for Friday looks like it could bring some measurable precip, maybe a few inches of snow.

The forecast models are struggling with the pattern in the long-range. Some of the runs bring the storm track further South the second half of next week and bring several storms into the second week of January. Other models keep the storms to our North a bit longer and then shifting the ridge back away from the coast and brining some colder storms in from the Northwest the second week of January.

Either way the pattern should continue to be more active and we will get some bigger storms in here in January. We will continue to watch and keep you updated on the first chance for a big dump. BA

Storm Activity Increases in Northern CA

2011-12-25T20:29:00.000-08:00

We continue to scour the forecast watching for when the big snows will arrive. The forecast for the next 10 days keeps the ridge off the coast of CA but further South than it has been. This will open up the storm door to the Pacific NW bringing in lots of storm activity to Northern CA and keeps us right on the Southern edge.

As the storms move by to the North this week we could pick up a few snow showers on Wednesday and Friday but I'm not expecting more than a dusting on the mountain as of right now. The ridge will shift out further West in the Pacific around the 1st and then the 5th of January to the North of Hawaii before quickly shifting back off the coast. This will allow the storms for the 2nd and 7th to shift further South which we have been watching for since it showed up last week. Right now though it looks like the brunt of the storms could stay just to the North of the area with only light amounts of snow but we will have to continue to watch.

Right now it's a +PNA pattern still which correlates with a ridge and dry conditions for CA. In a La Nina a -PNA pattern is more typical but it is not showing up yet in the forecasts. It should eventually though as the La Nina pattern takes over going into January. Another factor that may not have helped this month is the position of the convection with the MJO. It was strong and progressing toward the Western Pacific at the beginning of the month and then just stopped at the edge of phase 5 in the Maritime Continent and has been sitting there all month.

That is not in a good position for bringing snow to Tahoe as we would like to see it progress East into the Western Pacific. It is forecasted to start moving again towards and through the Pacific over the next 2 weeks. The convection moving into the Western Pacific could mean the ridge beginning to retrograde back towards Hawaii the first week of January allowing storms to dig further South. The MJO tends to have a bigger affect on the pattern during a weak/moderate La Nina.

So there are no big storms showing up in the forecast quite yet, but the good news is that the pattern is changing to more of a La Nina pattern with the jet stream hitting just to the North. Now we just need to get rid of the ridge off the coast so the jet stream and storms can push further South. We will continue to watch for the PNA to go negative and for anything else that will help to get the storms into Tahoe. Keep the snow dances going. BA

Still Watching for Possible Snow Next Week

2011-12-23T19:22:00.000-08:00

With the non-active weather pattern we have been talking all week about the possible snow next week. The forecast models today continue to show a chance for several inches next Wednesday and Thursday from the Southern half of a storm hitting the Pacific NW.

The active weather pattern for the Pacfic NW will begin this weekend. The ridge will be further South in the Eastern Pacific but it will still be off of the coast of CA. That will keep the storm track and heaviest precip just to our North the next couple of weeks. We are still waiting for a change in the teleconnection patterns to get the ridge to pull back away from the coast and totally open the storm door.

As long as the Pacific NW is active however we will have several chances over the next 2 weeks for storms to dip further South and bring us some snowfall. The first one that looks like it could bring snow is next Wednesday. Then a couple of storms the first week of January. This is not a typical La Nina pattern yet and we are watching for things to continue to get snowier. BA

The Pattern Is Slowly Moving in the Right Direction

2011-12-22T19:56:00.000-08:00

We need snow soon to help open more terrain on top of what the snow guns have created. The pattern is going to change this weekend and we will see increased chances for some snow next week. It doesn't look like the big storms we want yet but it is at least a change from the huge ridge off the coast blocking all of the storms. We will continue to watch the pattern for the breakthrough of the big storms in January.

The Pacific NW will start to get hit with multiple storms next week as the ridge off the coast shifts South opening the storm door to our North. As some of the stronger storms come in they may be able to push the ridge further South and make it into our area. There are a few chances next week of picking up a few inches.

The European weather model today suggested we could pick up a few inches from each of three storms next Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. The Japanese model suggested the snow holds off until a slightly bigger storm next Friday. The GFS model suggests we pick up a few inches from the Wednesday storm.

The most snow showing up is up to 9 inches from the three storms combined down to getting a dusting. We will have to continue to watch the track of the storms over the weekend.

Then the first week of January the storms continue to the North. Previous forecast model runs suggested some bigger storms coming down into Tahoe. The most recent runs show a similar pattern as next week. The teleconnections are still not favorable for an onslaught of storms yet, but they are looking like they could switch going into January. Keeping praying for snow. BA

Possible Snow Next Wednesday

2011-12-20T20:44:00.000-08:00

We have been watching for a pattern change to show up as we head towards the end of December and it may begin to take shape this weekend. Starting on Monday the storm train looks like it will begin to pull into the Pacific NW. That keeps us very close to the Southern edge of the storms and it won't take much of a shift to get the snow further South.

Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been showing the storm coming in on Wednesday dipping far enough South to bring us some snow. Right now it looks like it would be in the 3-6 inch range but it's too early to be looking at any totals yet. But the storm is there in the forecast so keep your fingers crossed it continues to push further South.

The active pattern will continue in the Pacific NW all next week and into the first week of January as the true Winter La Nina pattern really starts to kick in. That will keep the chances for the storms to track closer as we go into January. Right now the long-range forecast models are showing 2 possible bigger storms the first week of December, but take that with a grain of salt this far out.

The good news is that things are changing in the pattern and becoming more active. Keep your fingets crossed that the snow picks up going into the New Year. BA

Chance for a Little Snow Next Week

2011-12-19T19:49:00.000-08:00

Quiet weather will continue for another week and then we may have a chance of a small storm the second half of next week as storm activity picks up in the Pacific NW.

There is another shot of cold air coming in for Thursday but it won't be as strong as some of the other shots this month. It will only knock us down into the 30's for a day before we bounce back into the 40's through the weekend and into next week.

Next week the storm activity in the Pacific NW looks like it is really going to pick up. The storms will be not that far to our North so it won't take much for the ridge off the coast to shift back slightly and allow a storm to dip into California.

The forecast models are showing the possibility that the storm hitting the Pacific NW next Thursday could dip far enough South to bring in a little storm. It would not be a big storm but it could bring a few inches of snow to whiten the slopes again. We will have to watch this over the next week.

The bigger story still looks to be as we go into January. The forecast models continue to show a possible bigger storm just after the New Year. The teleconnections are showing that the first half of January could have quite a bit of cold pushing into the West Coast along with increased storminess. BA

Watching for a January Pattern Flip

2011-12-18T20:21:00.000-08:00

Continued dry weather this week as the ridge of high pressure stays anchored off the coast blocking all storm activity. Cold nights and cool days this week with lows in the teens and highs in the 40's, with inversions at the higher elevations.

On Thursday we will see another shot of colder air as another cold trough drops into the West just to our East. That will bring a little wind and colder temps for Thursday with highs only in the 30's. We will warm back into the 40's for the holiday weekend.

Next week looks quiet as well as the ridge off the coast pushes inland over CA. The pattern will begin to change next week as storms start to push into the Pacific NW up near Washington. As we go towards New Years the jet stream and storm track will start to push further South down the coast.

Looking more than week out we tend to just look at overall patterns and the pattern looks like it will continue to change going into the New Year. Looking at some of the teleconnection patterns over the Arctic it appears that some Arctic air will push down the Coast the begginning of January. That would also push the storm track South towards CA.

For now we will have to rely on snowmaking as we wait for the pattern change to take place. Stay tuned for continued updates as we watch for when the big snows will arrive. BA

Manmade Snow for Opening Day, Natural to Follow Soon

2011-12-16T20:14:00.000-08:00

The weather over the next 10 day looks like it is going to remain pretty tranquil. The temperatures will be in the 30's on the mountain with lows in the 20's at night. The dry air actually makes for optimum snowmaking conditions. The natural snow will return as the tranquil weather can't last forever.

The forecast models are showing a pattern change starting to take place in about 10 days. The ridge of high pressure just off the coast has been pushing all of the storms up into Western Canada. The trough we need along the West Coast for snow has been centered up near the Aluetian Islands with the jet stream coming underneather into Western Canada.

It looks like as we go into the last week of the month the trough may shift into the Gulf of Alaska. That would shift the jet stream further South down the coast into the Pacific NW. In the long-range the models are not as accurate, but they have been consistent in showing the ridge continuing to flatten the last week of the month with jetstream pushing further South and storm activity returning.

There is some stratospheric warming beginning to take place near the Arctic. If that continues towards the end of the month we should see an Arctic outbreak of cold push into the West. That could help to drive the trough down the West coast. I've never seen a snow drought last more than 6 weeks so we should see this pattern flip by the end of the month and going into January.

In Tahoe it only takes one week of the Westerlies breaking through and dumping on us to get us a significant snowpack. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor any signs of significant snowfall returning. Meanwhile enjoy the beautiful weather and fresh snow from the snow guns as we get ready to open limited terrain this weekend. BA

Snow Flakes in the Air...

2011-12-14T19:30:00.000-08:00

There is a storm coming onshore currently but it weakening as it approaches. We should see some snow showers tonight and Thursday along with some colder air, but not expecting more than a an inch or two.

These storms are just bits and pieces breaking off from the jet stream well to our North in Canada. They are sneaking in just to the ridge that has been parked off the coast for the past 3 weeks. We are not strangers to long dry spells here in Tahoe they tend to come in 4-6 periods when we do get them and are followed by prolonged periods of snowfall.

It's like the rubber band theory of if you stretch it long enough one directions it will eventually snap back. The pattern will snap back eventually. Right now the teleconnection patterns in the Pacific and across the country are not favorable for a snowy pattern.

As we go later into the month and into Winter the La Nina pattern will start to take over. Eventually the trough will come into the Eastern Pacific and continue to push Southward. Right now the long-range forecast models are showing the low pressures sitting over Alaska and sending the jet stream into Western Canada shifting into the Northeastern Pacific and pushing the jet stream further down the coast towards CA.

Stay tuned..BA

The Snow Can Only Get Better!

2011-12-13T20:27:00.000-08:00

It's the start of a La Nina Winter coming next week and that means the La Nina pattern will have to take over soon. Things should only improve the later we go into the month.

The weak storm moving in to our North on Thursday was shown by todays forecast models to track a little further West down the Sierra. That increases our chances of seeing some snowfall. Even with this track the storm does not have that much moisture to work with and we should only see a few inches at best.

There will be some more cold air before temperatures moderate back into the 40's this weekend. Next week the pattern looks to stay pretty quiet. There will be a storm that hits the Pacific NW the middle of next week but that storm looks to stay to our North as the ridge stays off the coast continuing to block storms.

Christmas weekend the forecast models are showing the jet stream continuing to push further down the West Coast bringing the storm track closer to CA. There is the chance of a storm making its way down the coast around Christmas Day.

Long-range models are sugesting the last week of the month we could see a ridge replace the trough near the Aleutian Islands, and a trough replacing the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. This is the first time they have shown this possible setup in over a month. If that pattern shift takes place we would see the jet stream and storms finally blast into CA.

This has been a painful start but we have seen some amazing comebacks here in Tahoe and it is possible for us to pick up a month's worth of snow in a week at times. Stay tuned...BA

Next Storm Trending East

2011-12-12T20:01:00.000-08:00

We were hoping for a little snowfall here on Thursday to break the natural snow drought we have going on currently. Like a lot of the storms over the past few weeks this one is now trending further East and may not bring much if any snow on Thursday with the cold front.

Next week the pattern to our North up into the Pacific NW looks like it will become more active. That will give us the chance of getting a little light snowfall if the ridge pulls away from the coast the middle of next week and a storm can sneak in.

The pattern across the Pacific has had a strong East Asian jetstream extending into the Western Pacific. That has helped to keep pumping the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. As we head into the Winter the La Nina should cause the jetstream to weaken and retract allowing the ridge off the coast to retrograde Westward. That would allow the trough to build back into the Eastern Pacific an open the storm door.

For now we just have to wait for the pattern to shift. As we go later into the month the pattern should become more active as the ridge begins to flatten. Then hopefully we see the ridge shift Westward. Stay tuned for updates.....BA

Still Snow Dancing...

2011-12-11T21:15:00.000-08:00

The way things are are going as we head into mid-December this could be one of the driest starts to the season in over a decade. La Nina is strengthening and eventually the pattern will have to change as we go into Winter.

During the 07-08 La Nina season we saw a pretty dramatic turn around in the pattern in January and February bringing the much below average snowfall to above average within only a few weeks. We are hoping for the same turn around this year.

We will get a little taste of Winter on Thursday as the next cold front comes as we will see some light snowfall. The forecast model runs from today were still showing around 3-6 inches of snowfall and then some more cold air behind the storm going into the weekend.

This is not the big dump of snow that we are looking for but it will be nice to see some natural snow fall on top of all the man-made snow. As we go into the following week things look to get more active in the Pacific NW. As long as storms are coming onshore up there some of the storms could drop in a little further South and bring us snow.

Looking long-term it looks like as we go towards the end of the month and into January blocking could begin to form near Alaska. That would suppress the jetstream further South and could finally mean a breakthrough of the Westerlies. Stay tuned....BA

Chance Increasing for Some Snow on Thursday

2011-12-10T20:34:00.000-08:00

You usually won't start looking at any sort of snowfall predictions until 5 days or less before a storm. That puts us in the window for the storm that will affect the area on Thursday. Confidence is increasing that we will see at least some snow.

There is a storm diving down the coast tomorrow but it will stay too far West to affect us. It will bring in some colder air to start the week. Then the next storm will come onshore in the Pacific NW on Wednesday. The exact track is still not certain with this storm, but the latest model runs bring it South right over the Sierra on Thursday.

Right now with the track not certain it is hard to pinpoint how much snow we will get. If the latest model runs were to pan out we would pick up 3-6 inches of snow. This is not the big dump we are looking for but it's snow and we'll take any snow we can get right now.

There is no sign of a break through of the Westerlies and big storms yet. There will more chances for snow though during week 2 as storms try and come over the ridge off the coast. Stay tuned....BA

More Cold with Snow Circling Us

2011-12-09T21:47:00.000-08:00

This has been a frustrating Fall snow wise with quite a few splitting storms coming in to our North, South, East, and West. There has not been a shortage of cold especially at night but that isn't helping with the snow. We will see another reinforcing shot of cold on Sunday as the next cold trough makes it way down the coast.

This trough will split as well with the low spinning down the coast and then coming inland to our South on Monday. It's another miss by a splitting storm and cut-off low down the coast to our West. We did pick up unexpected snow with the last cut-off low as it jumped inland at the last second. That is always a possibility with these storms.

The next chance at a little snow is a storm coming inland to our North the middle of next week. The forecast models are still varying with the track of this storm but it looks like it will stay mostly to our North. We could pick up a little light snow on the South side of the storm, and it will bring another shot of cold air.

Eventually we will get some natural snow. Earlier this week it looked like the pattern could shift with the ridge off the coast flattening around the 18th and beyond. The pattern is beginning to slow down a little which will allow the ridge to continue to build further North a little longer.

Right now it looks like we may just be delayed a few days as the storms could start to move in around the 21st. Right now the pattern is not looking to setup for a long stretch of snowy weather. That is the pattern that is expected to take over towards the end of the month and into January. We'll just have to keep watching, keep the snow dances going. BA

Chance for Light Snow this Weekend...

2011-12-08T19:37:00.000-08:00

Another cold trough is going to push down the coast this weekend. A low is going to split off along the coast and then come inland to our South. Right now it looks like a little light snow as the cold front pushes through on Sunday.

We then have another storm pushing into the Pacific NW next Wednesday. That could bring some more light snow on Thursday as we are brushed by the South side of the storm.

We need some bigger storms but right now they look to hold off until at least the 18th. The pattern looks to get more progressive which could help in flattening the ridge off the coast and bringing the storms further South down the coast from the Pacific NW. This could happen the week leading up to Christmas.

We will have to continue monitoring this over the next week. Some of the models suggest that the pattern could stay slow enough to allow the ridge off the coast to build far enough North to keep the storms just to our North. The other models suggest a Southward shift of the jetstream bringing a return of stormy weather beginning around the 18th. BA

The Forecast is Beginning to Look Better

2011-12-07T20:08:00.001-08:00

We have been stuck with the ridge of high pressure off the coast now for 2 weeks keeping the storms away from CA. This has left us longing for some snow to get the mountain up and running. Beginning this weekend and go forward the pattern should become more active with the chances for snow increasing.

There won't really be anything in the overall weather pattern to create blocking or locking in a pattern of constant snow or constant sun over the next couple of weeks. We will see a very progressive pattern of troughs and ridges bringing the chance for snow with the troughs. This will be a nice change from the constant ridge we have had.

The ridge that has been sitting off the coast will shift East as another ridge forms further West in the Pacific around 160w this weekend. The ridge will then move East towards a position off the coast again, but in between we will see a cold trough dive down the coast Sunday and Monday.

The cold is for sure but the exact track of the wave that will split off of the trough is not. It looks like we will see some light snow Sunday night as the cold front moves through and then we will have to watch the low that splits off and comes down the coast. Some of the models bring it down to our West and then inland over Tahoe on Monday bringing more light snow and other bring it in to our South missing us.

It looks like the ridge will move back in the Pacific again the middle of next week allowing another storm to dive in from the Northeast Pacific on Thursday. This would bring a shot at slightly more snow. The latest GFS forecast model run showed the possibility of high pressure forming in the Gulf of Alaska and supressing the jetstream South with this storm which would bring a much bigger storm so we will have to watch that.

This progressive pattern looks to continue with more storms possible the weekend of the 17th and into the week before Christmas. As the jetstream continues to strengthen and the jetstream flattens across the Pacific the storms should pick up some more moisture and bring bigger snowfalls later in the month.

The good news is that the pattern will be turning more interesting. Chances of light snow beginning this weekend and chances for bigger snows the following weekend. Hopefully enough snow to open lots of terrain by Christmas. Stay tuned....BA

Changes in the Works...

2011-12-05T20:05:00.000-08:00

This week is going to be quiet with the blocking high pressure off the coast. It does appear however that there are some changes coming to the pattern beginning next weekend.

The changes will start slow next weekend as the next shot of cold comes down from Canada. This time it looks as if the ridge of high pressure off the coast will shift Westward in the Pacific allowing this next storm to come down over the water.

The ridge will quickly move back in so this storm looks like it will become a cut-off low off the coast. When that happens the storm is cut-off from the main flow of the jetstream and from there it is hard to track where the storm will go. Right now it looks like the storm will come down far enough off the coast to miss Tahoe. We will have to watch where the storm eventually comes inland.

This is a good sign however to see the ridge moving and not just anchored off the coast blocking storms. As we go through next week there will be more storms that take aim at the Pacfic NW. That will bring the chance of some light snow here if the storms can come far enough South but nothing significant yet.

As we move into the week before Christmas around the 20th and beyond it looks more promising as the pattern across the Pacfic should become more zonal and storms will take a direct aim at the West Coast. Right now it looks like we could possibly see a return to a snowy pattern right before the Holidays. Stay tuned...BA

More Cold, But When Will It Snow?

2011-12-04T19:59:00.000-08:00

The weather has been quiet the past 10 days or so as a large high pressure ridge has built in off the coast and has been anchored there. It has been far enough off the coast to allow cold air to come down from Canada into the Western U.S.

We will see more of the same this week as the ridge remains off the coast pushing the storm track up into Alaska and Canada. One fo the things we have been waiting to happen is for the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern to go negative. In the positive state it tends to cause the ridging near CA.

It is now entering back into a negative state. Looking at next weekend it appears that the ridge could shift back enough from the coast to allow then next cold trough from Canada to come further West towards the coast. That would allow it to pick up some moisture and bring the chance at some light snow around the 12th.

As we go past mid-month it looks like as the jetstream gets stronger it will push further South down the coast. Right now looking at the long-range forecast models it appears that week 2 will bring some bigger storms to the Pacfic NW. That will bring increased chances of light snowfall here.

Hopefully as we go further into the month the trend will continue and the big snows will return before the holidays. BA

Eastern Pacific Ridge Keeping the Storm Door Shut...

2011-12-02T21:33:00.001-08:00

High pressure off the West Coast continues to push the storm track up into Alaska and Canada. Looking at the forecast models that pattern looks to cotinue for another week or two. In the meantime we will continue to get shots of cold and in between have seasonal temperatures.

This week the final Winter forecast came out from Accuweather.com. They continue to show us getting above average snowfall for the season even with the late start. It is not uncommon in Tahoe, especially in a La Nina year, for the snowfall to not really kick in until closer to Christmas.

That should be the case this season. We should see the snowfall begin to pick up as we get past mid-month and hed into true Winter. My thinking for the season in Tahoe based on the history of La Ninas with similar strengths to this one is that we will pick up around 105% of average snowfall.

Sierra At Tahoe averages 480 inches of snow per season which is still really good for an average year. With slightly above average snowfall expected this Winter we should see just over 500 inches for the season. Although we are off to a slow start here in December it will come soon enough. BA

We Have the Cold......

2011-11-30T19:58:00.000-08:00

The cold front blasted through today and now it is cold out and it will stay that way through the weekend. The highs on the mountain tomorrow will only be in the 20's. We need some precip to go along with this cold and we are all set.

We are going to be in the cold dry pattern here for a little while while the pattern evolves and matures into true Winter and a stronger La Nina. We have a second shot of some colder air on Saturday and then it will warm slightly into the 40's to start next week.

We will stay in a similar pattern next week with another cold trough coming down from Canada around mid-week bringing more cold and possibly some light snow. That pattern will continue with consecutive shots of cold into the following weekend.

In order to get some snow into CA we are waiting for the pattern to change. Currently there is a large area of high pressure spinning off the Pacfic NW coast sending storms coming across the Pacific ocean up into Alaska and Canada. This is common in a positive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which we are currently in.

Forecasts continue to show the PNA trending back towards negative around mid-month which would favor a trough off the West Coast and opening the storm door. Right now we will have to wait and watch the pattern evolve.

Looking at the forecast models they do show the ridge of high pressure in the Pacific shifting back from 130w in the Pacific to 140w by the 7th and then 150w by the 12th. The further back the ridge moves the easier it is for storms to drop down off the West Coast and then into CA. If the ridge moves back past 150w then the storm door really starts to open.

Right now it looks like things will become more favorable for snowfall beyond mid-month. I would expect that as the jetstream continues to strengthen in the Pacific it will push further South down the Coast. The closer we get to true Winter the more snow that should begin to make its way into Tahoe.

Dont' forget that some of the bigger snowfall seasons in history didn't start until January. 07-08 comes to mind as a recent season that didn't see much snow until January and then had above average snowpack by February. BA

It will feel a lot like Winter....

2011-11-29T19:38:00.000-08:00

A cold trough will be dropping into the West on Wednesday bringing lots of wind, cold air, and maybe a few flakes. The cold air mass will drop high temperatures into the 20's by Thursday before rebounding back into the 30's and then 40's for the weekend.

Things are still lining up well for a pattern flip around mid-December to a cold and snowy one. Until then we have a monster ridge off the West coast blocking storms from hitting the West Coast. That ridge is locked in place by teleconnection patterns and ocean temps over the Pacific.

We will see shot of cold air and possibly some light snow over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned as we monitor the patterns and look for the big change. More on the long-range in the post below. BA

Ingredients still Coming Together for Big Winter...

2011-11-28T20:55:00.000-08:00

With the ridge off the West Coast blocking storms the next couple of weeks there will be some shots of cold and light snow. The first being Wednesday night into Thursday and another one to start the following week. But let's look at what is shaping up for the Winter.

This Winter is still on track to bring big snows. Once the Snow starts it should come in earnest and last a while.

Looking at the temperatures in the Pacific they are not helping with the current pattern of the ridge in the Northeast Pacific. Earlier this Fall we saw warmer than average temperatures along and just off of the CA coast. The ocean temps between here and Hawaii are now colder than this time last year.

With the current pattern it means the water is too cold to support a Southern branch of the jetstream to come underneath of the ridge. But as we go into the Winter the sinking air over the cold water along the subtropical waters will favor troughing off the West Coast. That combined with warmer than average water temps in the Western Pacific strengthening the jetstream should mean the perfect ingredients for lots of snow in the Winter months.

First, we need to get the ridge to retrograde back away from the West Coast. Right now the positive PNA pattern is supporting the ridge off the coast blocking the storms. We need the PNA to go back negative which supports trough along the West Coast. During La Nina conditions the negative phase of the PNA is supported so we should see it more than not going into the Winter. The current forecasts show it possibly going negative around mid-December.

The other thing that can pull the ridge back and bring a period of enhance precip to the West Coast is the MJO when it enters the Western Pacific. The MJO is actually getting pretty strong in the Indian Ocean as it progresses towards the Maritime Continent. As it moves into the Western Pacfic over the next couple of weeks it should begin to help pull back the ridge.

So although we have quiet weather for the next couple of weeks things are definitely lining up for Winter to possibly begin for real later in the month.

Stay tuned...BA

Cold & Light Snow to Return Mid-Week...

2011-11-27T06:43:00.001-08:00

We are looking for any sign of a return to Winter and lots of snow for Tahoe and Sierra at Tahoe. Right now we are under the influence of a positive PNA pattern over the Pacific and North America which will make it a little harder to get big snow into the Sierra.

The nice weather this weekend will continue through Wednesday before a strong cold front pushes South out of Canada. By Thursday and Friday highs wont' get out of the 30's on the mountain. There is a chance of light snowfall as the front pushes through on Thursday. The cold air will allow for increased snowmaking and trail expansion.

We need to watch for a cut-off low that could form over Tahoe from this cold front and stall at the end of the week possibly bringing more light snowfall. Right now the weather models keep it just to our South. The quiet weather resumes next weekend before another shot of cold air and light snowfall is possible to start the following week.

Right now we are in a +PNA teleconnection pattern which favors a ridge in the West. During a +PNA the ridge will sit North of Hawaii and a trough near the Aleutian islands. That sends the storms coming across the Pacfic up into Alaska and then down into British Columbia. What it can do like this week is bring the cold down the West Coast but the storms are dry by the time they reach us.

We will be watching for a flip of the PNA back to negative in December. We have a La Nina in place this season which favors a -PNA. That is good news for us as we get closer to true Winter. Until then we will have shots of cold air with light snowfall and plenty of snowmaking. BA

Beautiful Weekend, Cold and Possible Snow Midweek....

2011-11-25T19:40:00.000-08:00

The ridge is building in strong over the West and will dominate our Weather over the next several days. There are a few good signs in the weather though for the upcoming week, but big snow is not quite on the horizon yet.

As we go through next week the ridge of high pressure sitting over the Rockies will begin to shift West towards the West Coast as a trough and storm dive into the East. By Wednesday the ridge should be offshore in the Pacific which will still block storms from coming in off the ocean, but it will open the path for cold and light snow to come down from Canada.

On Thursday it looks like a cold airmass will push down into the West from Canada and bring light snowfall down through the Rockies to our East. Several of the weather models show the possibility of a piece of energy breaking off and forming a low pressure near Tahoe. That low could bring light snowfall Thursday and Friday before pushing East next weekend.

The following week looks similar with the possibity of another strong cold air mass pushing down through the West. We need the ridge to move further off the coast so that these cold fronts can come further West and tap moisture from off the ocean. It is possible but it's harder to do when we have a positive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern.

We are hoping that the PNA goes back negative soon which it should since a La Nina favors a negative PNA. Also, as we get closer to Winter the jetstream will continue to get stronger and push further down the coast. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is also trending negative. That would help to displace the cold in the Arctic Southward which in turn can push the jetstream further South down the coast.

We also need to watch the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) as it continues to strengthen in the Indian Ocean. We want it to push through the Western Pacific while strong so that it can pull the ridge back from the coast or send the jetstream underneath the ridge into CA. You can monitor all these teleconnections here.

Until then keep tuning in and keep praying for snow. I believe that once it returns it will return in a big way with the stronger than normal La Nina jetstream this Winter. BA

Happy Thanksgiving...

2011-11-24T10:04:00.000-08:00

It is time to start the Sierra weather discussions as we look for the big storms to get us open. We could see a flake or two on the mountain today as the cold front pushes through with a lack of moisture. The sun will be out for the rest of the weekend with highs in the 40's on the mountain and lows in the 20's at night.

It is going to be a quiet week weather wise with sun and highs in the 40's on the mountain most of the week and in to the 50's at the base. We are entering a postive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which producing ridging along the West Coast and blocks out storms for a little while.

The good news is that we have La Nina conditions which favors a negative PNA pattern and troughing along the West Coast, so the quiet weather shouldn't last for too long. Looking at the weather for week 2 it appears that the ridge is going to really build Northward all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska forming a block and keeping the storms up into Alaska and Canada.

Some weather models show the ridge a little further West which would drive some of that Arctic air from Alaska down the West Coast. That would also bring the chance of light snow and very cold air starting around next weekend, so we will have to watch that.

Another thing that is possible when there is high pressure blocking in the gulf of Alaska is that sub-tropical jetstream can come underneath into the West Coast. Right now there really isn't a sub-tropical jet to do that, but the wild card can be the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) that can create psuedo El Nino conditions for about a week when it moves through the Pacific and is strong enough. Right now it is strengthening in the Indian Ocean as it circles the globe.

We will have to watch it as it moves towards the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks. I will also be watching the Arctic Oscillation as the forecast is for it to go negative in December. That would aid in displacing the cold air in the Arctic Southward into the U.S. Last year we saw a coupling of that and the jetstream coming under the Pacific ridge more than once for a months worth of snow in a week. Stay tuned....BA

Until Next Time.....

2011-03-30T14:08:00.000-07:00

My time here is up for the season and it has been quite an exciting one full of big storms. Sierra has picked up an amazing amount of snow this season with 719 inches to date. That is 150% of the seasonal average. It has definitely been one for the record books.

We will have periods of spring weather over the next few weeks with shots of cold and light snow from time to time. We may have to add a little more to the total before the mountain closes at the end of April.

My last post below goes through the numbers for our Mega March. Tune back in next fall as we begin another exciting season of tracking storms. BA

A Taste of Spring This Week...

2011-03-28T09:18:00.001-07:00

Sierra had an amazing run of storms here over the past couple of weeks. The 10 day total is 158 inches, 15 day 205 inches, and March 233 inches. Sierra has now picked up an incredible 719 inches at the summit on the season.

It is only March 28th so should not be done yet with snowfall on the mountain this season, but we are done for at least the next 5 days. The ridge is building off the West coast and it will be right over CA by Thursday & Friday. Temps will be chilly still today in the 30's on the mountain and breezy. As the ridge builds in temps will rise all week with 40's Tuesday/Wednesday and then 50's by Thursday and Friday. We may even hit 60 at the base.

The flow stays fairly progressive over the next couple of weeks, so the ridge moves to our East this weekend. That will allow a storm to move in to our North on Saturday and Sunday. It is looking pretty week right now with only light snowfall above 7000 ft. The biggest change will be windy and colder weather over the weekend with highs only in the 30's & 40's.

Long-range models can be pretty unreliable this time of year with the change in the seasons. Teleconnections may be more telling as they are a semi-constant in the chaos of the weather patterns. They favor a ridge along the West coast through next week and the models do show a ridge moving back in the beginning of the week. As we go into the second week of April the teleconnection forecasts show a pattern that would once again favor a retrogression of the ridge and a trough along the West coast.

Enjoy the nice weather during the weekdays these next two weeks as we see sunny skies and nice temps because it may not last. As we go towards mid-month I think we have a chance at a return to below average temps and some storms. Stay tuned......BA

Storm #2 is a Biggie....

2011-03-24T08:25:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another 18 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the total for storm #1 to 21 inches. That is pretty much on forecast for storm #1 and storm #2 is moving in today.

This storm is much stronger than storm #1 and is also windier and colder. That will combine for a nice big storm over the next 24 hours, possibly one of the bigger ones of the season and most likely the LAST big one of the season.

Heavy precip is banking up along the crest this morning and will spill over soon. It is going to be a mess this afternoon with some models showing up to an inch of liquid in a 6 hour period between 11 a.m. & 5 p.m. That's 2-4 inches an hour adding up to over a foot on the mountain in a short time period.

Another interesting thing this morning is that the temps dropped overnight into the teens above 8000 ft. and the 20's at the base and are holding steady as the storm approaches. That is showing how cold this storm is going to be with snow ratios of 20:1 up on the mountain and 15:1 at the base. Models are all different in the details of the storm over the next two days with amounts of precip and when but it looks like at least 1.5 inches of liquid by tomorrow morning. So let's go 14-20 inches at the base and 20-30+ inches on top.

Then there are more waves rotating in tomorrow that keep the snow going into Friday night. That drops another 10-15 inches at the base and 15-20+ inches on top. By Saturday morning I'm expecting storm totals of 2-3 feet at the base and 3-5 feet on top.

Another storm moves in on Saturday but models are not in agreement on this one. Some want to bring in a nice little storm with 6-12 inches at the base and 12-18 inches on top and then clearing on Sunday. Others show the storm a little weaker on Saturday with another final storm moving through on Sunday. Either scenario we look to pick up several more inches over the weekend at the base and 1-2 more feet on top to cap of an amazing 2 weeks of snowfall.

Powder hounds get on it this weekend because we have a flip next week in the pattern with a closing of the storm door as the ridge shifts to off our coast. Temps should be up into the 40's by mid-week on the mountain and could hit the 50's at the base. It's time for some spring skiing on the best base we have seen to start Aplril in at least 28 years.

I also recommend getting out your camera and taking shots around Tahoe of the amazing snowpack as who knows it could be another 16-28 years before we have this much snow again if we go by the law of averages. This won't be the end of snow just the end of huge storm cycles, I'm pretty sure anyway. The pattern does look to stay fairly progressive long-range but the jetstream should be retreating North so we will get shots of colder weather and light-moderate snowfall with each quick hitting storm. That could start as early as next weekend. BA

Can You Believe It?

2011-03-23T08:04:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another 3 inches overnight as we are just beginning this next 4 day storm cycle that is prepared to bring us several more feet of snow.

Front is pushing towards Sacramento this morning. As it pushes closer towards us today it will increase the snow intensity with the heaviest snow this afternoon as it pushes across the area. Snow showers will continue tonight into Thursday morning. No change in the snow totals by Thursday morning of 10-15 inches at the base & 15-20+ inches on top.

Next storm ready to dive in tomorrow afternoon and this storm is stronger than this first one. The models may even be a little low on the snow totals. Snow will last through the day on Friday and some snow showers even into Friday night with the moist flow off the Pacific. By Saturday morning expecting another 1.5-2 feet at the base and 2-3+ feet on top.

Next storm still looking good to move in on Saturday and last into Saturday night. There really won't be a break in the snow today through Saturday. By Sunday morning expecting up to another foot+ at the base and 1-2+ feet on top. By Sunday our 4 day totals should be around 3-4+ feet at the base and 4-6+ feet on top.

We will end up with 9 day totals around 7-8 feet at the base and 11-13 feet on top. That is an amazing amount of snow in a a little over a week and Sierra will be closing at the end of April with a huge base.

A bit of a break next week with just some brush-by systems to our North. BA

Here We Go Again........

2011-03-22T11:10:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another inch from the light snow showers over the past 24 hours. That brings the 4 day storm total to 67 inches or 5.5 feet up top, and the 9 day total to over 9 feet. That is not the end as we have another 4 day storm cycle headed our way that will bring another 4-6 feet.

Snow showers fizzled out overnight as we lost the heating from the sun. Now we have a break today to enjoy the snow from round 1 as we await the next storm series that will begin tonight. Not much change from yesterday on the amounts through the weekend just the timing, so let's break it down.

The snow should begin falling by midnight tonight with some overrunning moisture ahead of the main storm. The heavy snow pushes in by Wednesday morning. The heavy snow will last all day on Wednesday with snow showers behind the front last through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The snowfall from this first storm should be around 15-20 inches at the base and 20-25 inches on top.

No break in the snow as the next strong storm moves in by Thursday afternoon bringing heavy snow into Friday morning. The snow showers behind the main storm will last into Friday night. The snowfall from this second storm should be around 18-24 inches at the base and 2-3 feet on top.

Third storm is now forecasted to arrive faster now by Saturday afternoon lasting into Sunday morning. This storm is weaker than the first 2 storms. The snowfall from this third storm should be around 10-15 inches at the base and 15-20 inches on top.

Storm totals by Sunday morning will be around 3-4.5 feet at the base and 4.5-6 feet on top. Basically we are getting a replay of the last 4 days over the next 4 days. Sierra will be getting close to the 700 inch mark on the season by Sunday.

Next week we look to have a break with a brush-by storm to our North on Tuesday and then a ridge with nice weather through Friday. The next chance of a storm is the first weekend in April. The long-range models look typical of spring with a fast progressive pattern, cut-offs, and inconsistency. This should be our last big storm series this week and then quick hits of snow going forward in April. Stay tuned……….BA

Ready for the Next Storm Cycle?

2011-03-21T08:56:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another 21 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the weekend storm total to over 5 feet up top and the 8 day total to over 9 feet. Sierra is now at 631 inches on the season which is 131% of the annual average. We could come close to 700 inches by this time next Monday which is crazy. This could be the biggest winter since 1982-83 and after that we have to go back to 1951-52.

Snow showers are continuing this morning and should continue through most of the day & into the evening with the moist flow off the Pacific. We could pick up another 3-6 inches on the mountain today and tonight.

Finally a short break on Tuesday before the next cold storm quickly dives in by Tuesday night. This storm lasts through Wednesday and the next stronger storms moves in on Thursday and lasts throug Friday. A break Saturday before another storm on Sunday into Monday. Over this period we will once again receive several feet of snow.

I have been crunching numbers this morning to try and break down individual storm totals this week. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS are pretty close in total liquid for each storm and both have a 5 day total of 3-4 inches of liquid. This last storm cycle I took an average temperature forecast of the period highs & lows and then came up with an average snow ratio. That seemed to work pretty well in forecasting the snow totals. Will do that again with this upcoming storm cycle.

On top of the mountain will go with an average of 15:1 ratios and around 10:1 at the base. Models showing .75-1.25 inches of liquid with the Wednesday storm which is 6-12 inches at the base and 12-24 inches on top. For Thu-Fri 1-1.75 inches of liquid is 10-15 inches at the base and 15-25 inches on top. Sunday storm could bring .5-1.0 inches of liquid which would be another 5-10 inches at the base and 10-15 inches on top.

That would make a 5 day total of 2-3 feet at the base and 3-5+ feet on top by Monday. Of note is that the 0z GFS and some previous model runs were stronger with the Thursday storm possibly bringing a foot more with that storm. Will have to watch the models today to see the trend. Either way we are going to add several more feet and will get close to the 700 inch mark.

The ridge in the Central Pacific, that is responsible for the trough along the West coast this week with cold and snow, will shift to the East Pacific off our coast next week. That will block storms to our North all week and give us a break to clean up from all the snow. Expecting beautiful weather next week with an unbelievable spring snowpack.

Long-Range models (which are not as accurate during season changes) are showing the possibility of the ridge re-emerging in the Central Pacific by the first weekend in April. Will have to see how amplified that ridge becomes because that will determine how deep the trough is along the West coast. Right now the potential is there for a return to cold storms. Stay tuned.....BA

Over 600 Inches and Counting...........

2011-03-20T08:28:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up 17 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the 2 day storm total to 39 inches, and the 7 day total to over 7 feet on top. The onslaught of big snows continues as Sierra at Tahoe has now broken 600 inches on the season and counting.

NWS reported a pressure reading in the center of the storm around 2 a.m. of 981 mb. That is a category 1 hurricane pressure and one of the lowest recorded pressures recorded in the past several decades according to the NWS.

The center of the low is moving Northeast through Northern CA and is pushing a cold front towards the Sierra. That will increase the snowfall intensity this morning. Heavy snow will continue through the day and into tonight as the front is slow to move through. Once the cold front clears the snow becomes showery overnight and into Monday.

Total liquid on the models through Monday morning is still the same at 2-2.5 inches. So expecting an additional 1-2 feet at the base and 2-3 feet on top. Snow ratios above 7000 ft. will be around 15:1 so light snow but not as light as the last storm. Weekend storm total on the mountain should end up around 4-6 feet.

Cold unstable airmass and a continued moist flow off the Pacific will continue the snow showers into Monday night. We could pick up several more inches Monday and Monday night. Tuesday looks like the one short break before the next storm moves in as early as late Tuesday night.

The first wave in the next series of storms pushes in by Wednesday. This first wave doesn't look as strong with several inches likely. Next wave moves in on Thursday and is strong and lasts through Friday. This one could drop around 2-3 feet. The third wave moves in on Sunday and models are not in agreement on the strength.

This series of storms Wed-Sun is going to drop several more feet on top of the massive amounts we have already received in the past week. Looks like we could finally have a break after next weekend, but it may not last as we could see storms return the first week of April. Stay tuned......BA

Cold & Snowy Week Ahead......

2011-03-18T06:13:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another 8 inches on top Wednesday morning with the last band of heavy snow that pushed through. That brought the storm total to 28 inches, the 7 day total to 53 inches, and the season total to 560 inches. Sierra only averages 480 inches a season so we are now at 117% of the annual snowfall average and winter is far from over.

We had a break Thursday and the next storm is ready to dive in today. This storm will be a much colder storm with a drier & fluffier snow. The main storm pushes into the Tahoe basin around noon today and the heavy snow should last through tonight. With the cold air with this storm and moist flow behind the front I would expect snowshowers to last into Saturday. Total liquid by Saturday is 1-1.5 inches. That is less than the last storm but with colder temps and higher snow ratios we will do pretty good. Looking for 15-20 inches at the base and 20-25+ inches on top by Saturday evening.

The main upper low responsible for spinning the storm in on today will move down the coast slowly over the weekend. This will keep snow showers going off and on Saturday and Sunday with several more inches possible. Then the main low pushes in another wave of heavy snow Sunday afternoon into Monday and then the main low pushes through Monday night. This second half of the storm looks a little more impressive with liquid amounts of 2-2.5 inches. That would mean another 2-3 feet at the bas and 3-4 feet on top. By Tuesday morning we should have 4 day totals of around 3-4 feet at the base and 4-6 feet on top.

If you thought that was the end you are wrong. Next storm is already diving in some time on Wednesday as another cold low dives down from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm is being shown by most models as slowing as it approaches and then slowly push inland Wednesday-Saturday. Looking at snow totals this far out is sketchy but models have enough liquid to bring around 3-4 feet. That could mean 7-10 feet up top over the next 10 days.

With the ridge sitting out in the Central Pacific over the next 10 days we will continue to have a trough along the West coast with cold storms diving in and below average temps. Long-range models show a possible break the last few days of the month before more storms possible the first week of April. Looking at teleconnections they look more favorable for storms as we go out 2 weeks. MJO is also circling around and strengthening so we could have one more blast of big storms in the beginning of April. Stay tuned......BA

Like a Lion......

2011-03-16T08:05:00.000-07:00

Storm was a little colder than expected for once as snow levels dropped to lake level pretty early last night which increased the snow ratios up top. Sierra picked up 12 inches overnight & 24 inches in the past 2 days and it's still coming down. That brings the total for the week up to 37 inches and the season to over 540 inches!

Looking at the models this morning they still want to drop up to an inch of liquid today between 5 a.m. & 5 p.m. That should add another 10-15 inches on top of the mountain. We should see the snow begin to clear out by this evening.

We are not done yet as the jetstream remains aimed at CA as we get into the heart of this snowy 2 week period. Another colder storm is set to push in on Friday with the heaviest snow Friday night into Saturday. There is another storm behind that coming in just to our South Sunday & Monday. Friday into Saturday we could see 1-2 feet of snow on the mountain. Several more inches possible as we get the Northern edge of the storm Sunday & Monday. Temps will only be in the 30's through the weekend at the base and 20's up on the mountain.

Next week the models disagree a little on the the way the storms arrive. The Euro is consistent with the next storm pushing in for Tuesday & Wednesday, and another storm for Friday. The GFS has been playing with the idea that the trough digs so deep off the coast it forms a cut-off low that slowly pushes inland but not until Thursday. Either way the pattern remains active with more snow next week and below average temperatures. Stay tuned...........BA

When Will It End....

2011-03-15T16:16:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up another inch in the past 24 hours from some light snow showers yesterday and last night in the moist flow off the Pacific. That brought the 2 day storm total to 14 inches. We should be able to at least double that by tomorrow night.

Next storm is moving in this afternoon with overrunning moisture already in the area ahead of the main storm. Snow levels are beginning to rise above 7000 ft. but will fall to lake level overnight. The jetstream is extending across the Pacific and into CA. This jet will push into the area this afternoon and through the day on Wednesday.

Models are pretty consistent on 1.5-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Wednesday night. That will translate to 18-24 inches on top of the mountain by Wednesday night & 12-18 inches at the base. The snow level will be just above the base lodge to start and then will drop to the base overnight.

Next storm is set to move in by Friday and this storm is much colder with snow levels starting at lake level. We could see snow showers as early as Thursday night with heavier snow pushing into the basin Friday night and Saturday. This storm looks to bring another 1-2 feet of snow but of the drier variety.

We will have to watch the track of another low diving in behind this one over the weekend. The low looks to track in to our South but enough precip could still make far enough North to bring us several more inches. Temps over the weekend will be cold with highs in the 20's & 30's.

The storms for Wednesday and Friday of next week are still on track as well. These are colder storms as well and could bring us some decent snows. BA

Snow, Snow, & More Snow.....

2011-03-14T07:09:00.000-07:00

Sierra picked up 7 inches overnight exactly to the forecasted totals. Light snow showers this morning will clear out with the sun returning. Sierra has now picked up 522 inches on the season which is 109% of the annual snowfall average. This is just the beginning of a snowy week for the Sierra.

You can see on satellite that the next storm is not that far behind this one just off the coast. Temps today and tomorrow will be in the 30's on mountain ahead of the storm. This storm should last longer with snow lasting into the day on Wednesday.

Models still vary a little with total liquid but more are on the side of 18-24 inches on top. It looks as if about half of the precip will fall after snow levels drop below 7000 ft. That means we should see up to a foot at the base by Wednesday night. Behind the storm on Thursday temps will be much colder with highs in the 20's on the mountain with a chance of snow showers between storms.

Next storm is 24-36 hours behind this one with snow moving in again by Thursday night. This storm is much colder coming down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm could bring up to a foot of snow into Friday with plenty of cold air behind it for the weekend. Another storm dives down the coast on Sunday but looks like it will come in to our South.

Models are in fairly good agreement on a strong cold storm for the middle of next week. The colder than average pattern with a trough along the West coast and storms diving down from the North Pacific looks to continue going towards the end of the month. There is no sign of a ridge building off the coast to block storms, but the jetstream will weaken going into April. I will be traveling tomorrow so the storm update will be out in the afternoon. BA

Plenty of Snow on the Way......

2011-03-13T07:25:00.000-07:00

We have a series of storms on the way starting tonight, and we will transition back into a colder pattern by the end of this week that could last a while.

We start tonight with a fast moving storm that will bring 6-9 inches to the mountain. Things should clear out pretty quickly on Monday with sun and a fresh blanket of powder and highs near 40 degrees.

Next storm is about 36 hours behind this one and ready to move in Tuesday night. This storm is stronger and will bring a decent snowfall to the mountain with 12-18+ inches. This storm will last into the day on Wednesday.

The storms over the past couple of weeks have been a little mild. This is due to the location of the ridge up near Alaska leaving the Pacific wide open for storms to come across the middle and pick up warm moisture before hitting the Pacific NW. We have been on the South side (warm side) of the storms where a weak cold front gets dragged through as the storms head East. This storm pattern will change on Thursday.

A ridge will begin to build out around 150w and will expand Northward. This will begin to push the storms up towards Alaska and then dows the West coast. The trough along the West coast will dig deeper and that will bring a return of colder weather by this weekend and into the following week. That means a return to highs in the 30's even down to lake level.

The first cold storm is arriving on Friday and could move slowly inland over the weekend. Right now next weekend looks like a cold and snowy weekend with some models showing several inches in a snow showery pattern, and others showing several waves of moisture that could bring a couple of feet.

The colder pattern looks to continue into week 2 and beyond as the ridge stays out in the Western Pacific. We should continue to see storms dropping down the West coast into CA. The difference in March is that a cold pattern is highs in the 30's & 40's with a stronger sun as compared to the 20's & 30's with a weaker sun in previous months. So when it's not snowing it will still feel pretty nice outside. The cooler temps will aid in keeping the snowpack in place into April. BA

Still More Powder to Come.....

2011-03-12T07:52:00.000-08:00

Series of storms will bring lots of fun weather this week starting Sunday night. We will see a storm every other day into next weekend.

As of Saturday morning not much change in the snowfall forecast. Dusting possible on the mountains this afternoon with a quick shot of moisture as a system passes to our North. Next storm moves in tomorrow night into Monday with 3-6 inches on the mountain Sunday night through Monday possibly more if the GFS is right.

Euro is further North than the GFS with the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm. Euro says another 3-6 inches and the GFS says a foot or more, let's go with the middle of 6-9 inches for now. We may need to go higher because the GFS has been consistent with over a foot of snow.

Next storm is off the coast by Thursday night into Friday. This is where the models diverge a little with what happens. The one thing they agree on is that this will be the coldest storm as we go into a colder pattern towards the end of the week. The GFS has this storm as a cut-off that spins off the coast and ejects inland slowly over the weekend bringing what could be a lot of snow. The Euro says the storm blows right in on Friday and then another couple of waves follow over the weekend.

The reason I talk about the Euro and GFS models the most is that I find them to be the best long-range models. I will use several other models in the short term especially to compare snowfall amounts of an approaching storm.

The pattern remains cold and stormy into week 2 as the ridge builds in the North Pacific out near 150w which is our pattern for colder storms that drop down the West coast. There is some suggestion that the ridge pushes further East towards the end of the month. One scenario could be the jetstream comes underneath if we still have some energy left or that could be the end of the storm train and March goes out like a lamb.

To summarize no matter which model solution is right we should see at least several feet in total on the mountain over the next 10 days to add to our great season. Stay tuned.....BA

Dustings Now, Dumps Later....

2011-03-10T07:42:00.000-08:00

Not much change today in the forecast. The storm moving in this afternoon will bring an 1-3 inches to the mountain.

The weekend looks fair with the Saturday storm staying well to our North and temps in the 40's.

We continue in a zonal flow to start next week with 2 more storms on the way for Monday and Wednesday. The models disagree on the strength of both storms. The GFS says 6-9 inches with both storms and the Euro is weaker with the Monday storm but still has the Wednesday storm as a pretty big storm.

If the Euro is correct we could have a 2 day storm with a strong cold front that brings 2-3 feet of snow. We will have to watch the Wednesday storm closely as our next chance of a bigger storm.

It still appears the ridge could amplify in the Central Pacific the second half of next week digging the trough deeper off the West Coast. That would bring colder air to our area and colder storms starting next weekend. There is a slow moving, possible cut-off, storm for next weekend that could bring accumulating snow to all elevations.

This pattern could continue into the last week of the month with below average temps and storms every few days. We could still have a few big storms left to go this month. No sign of the storm door closing yet. BA

Stormy Pattern to Continue.....

2011-03-09T07:21:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up a total of 17 inches from the last storm as of Monday bringing the season total to a whopping 515 inches which is already 107% of the annual snowfall average.

Nice weather again today ahead of the next storm that will hit the Pacific NW. The parade of storms will continue to impact the Pacific NW over the next couple of weeks as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska spins them in on its South side. The big question for Tahoe over the next couple of weeks is how far South will the storms track.

As long as the pattern remains active odds are we get at least some snow even if we have to take it in inches. The next storm moves through tomorrow night and light snow may make its way far enough South to bring us a couple of inches on the mountain.

Nice weather between each of these storms with nice weather again Friday and Saturday ahead of the next storm Saturday night. This storm looks to stay north of us so maybe some clouds and a dusting on the mountain at most. Then nice weather again on Sunday.

The next storm arrives on Monday and this storm looks as if it could dip a little further South. This would bring us some snow more in the 3-6 inch range. There is another storm behind that for next Wednesday. This storm also looks as if it will come further South but the models vary greatly on the strength. The GFS says it's another 3-6 inch storm but the Euro has it picking up even more moisture and slowing to bring us a couple of feet. Either way the storms next week look to bring several inches instead of a couple inches like the storms this week.

The storms over the next week are coming across the Pacific in a zonal fashion and so they will not be that cold, but not that warm either. For some good cold strong storms we need the flat ridge to amplify and setup further West in the Pacific. This may begin to happen towards the end of next week. That would allow the storms next Friday and into the weekend to go North, grab cold air, and then drop down the coast and pick up some decent moisture off the Pacific before hitting CA.

The pattern from day 10 and beyond into the final week of March may feature some colder and stronger storms. Long range models support this currently but remember the accuracy of the long-range models with the change in the seasons can be not as good. For now we will expect the stormy pattern to continue into the end of the month. I will be the first to let you know if that changes....BA

7 More Weeks of Winter.......

2011-03-07T07:38:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another 11 inches in the past 24 hours bringing to storm total to 15 inches so far. A heavier snowband formed this morning over the mountain so at least a couple more inches likely going to be added to the totals tomorrow morning. Sierra has now picked up over 500 inches on the season so far and we still have 7-8 more weeks until the end of the season.

Will have to watch the radar this morning as the core of the low moves over the area as more snow showers and snow bands may form. Other than that it is cold today with highs in the 20's on the mountain and around freezing at the base. Tue-Thu is dry with highs in the 40's.

The pattern is quite progressive over the long-range with the teleconnections mostly neutral. Starting this Thursday going out 10+ days there is a storm about every other day or so. We will get the Southern egde of a storm Thursday night and Saturday night with light snow possible. The bigger affect will most likely be a quick shot of colder air.

Then the ridge may retrograding a little further West in the Pacific allowing a storm to dig a little further South on Monday the 14th and another on Wednesday. Those would be a nice shot of cold snow to freshen things up. The best chance at another bigger shot of snow still looks to be Friday the 18th as the ridge may retrograde a bit further West as a strong storm comes across the Pacific and digs South picking up lots of moisture before it hits the West coast.

As we get into the middle of March we have to start taking the long-range models with a grain of salt. They are much less accurate with the change in the pattern going into Spring. With that in mind they are hinting at continued storminess with another storm possible Monday the 21st. Teleconnections are not as favorable for big West coast storms, but they are also not favorable for ridging yet either. They are in a pattern of progressive zonal flow for now, so will have to keep an eye on the forecasts. Stay tuned......BA

Part I.....

2011-03-06T08:30:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up 4 inches overnight as this storm is just getting started and will last through Monday.

We should pick up another 3-6 inches today on the mountain before we have a lull in the action this evening. Part 2 of the storm moves in overnight as the cold front approaches. The heaviest should snow should occur during the morning hours on Monday and snow showers should last most of the day. Expected additional snow totals by Monday night of 6-9 inches at the base and 9-12+ inches on top. Storm totals of 16-24 inches on top.

A ridge will build in behind the storm keeping us dry and warmer Tues-Thurs with temps up into the 40's by Wednesday. As that ridge slides East it will be replaced by a flatter ridge out in the Pacific around 140w. Since the ridge is not quite far enough West it will keep the next couple of storms just to our North and we are on the Southern edge. That will bring a shot of colder air and a chance of light snow Thursday night and Saturday night.

The ridge may then retrograde back a little further West allowing a storm to dig and bring us a bigger storm on Monday the 14th. There is another storm heading our way around the 18th but the models are trying to build a ridge in the East Pacific.

Looking at the teleconnections they are not looking as favorable after mid-month. The PNA has already gone positive over the past few days which may be why the ridge is so flat this week. The forecast is for the PNA to stay slightly positive and the AO & NAO to trend towards negative. That could mean the end of our storm train after mid-month. BA

Unsettled Weekend......

2011-03-04T11:55:00.000-08:00

Looking at this morning's models they continue to bring in less liquid with the storm this weekend. There is a long subtropical tap stretching all the way back to Hawaii that will be pushed into Northern CA by the low spinning in the Gulf of Alaska tonight. By the time the moisture is pushed into Tahoe Saturday afternoon the subtropical warm tap will be cut-off and the storm will bring us light amounts of snow on the mountain.

I would expect light snowfall with snow accumulating mid-mtn and up Saturday afternoon through Sunday with around 3-6 inches of snow over that entire period. Snow levels will come down Saturday night and Sunday to right around the base lodge.

Then Sunday night the cold front approaches and pushes through by Monday morning. This will drop snow levels below lake level and bring the heaviest precip of the storm. Currently it looks as if we could see around 4-8 inches at the base and 8-12 inches on top. This will be some colder snow on top of the wetter stuff from the weekend very similar to what we just had with the last storm.

Starting Tuesday there is a ridge off the coast blocking storms and bringing nice weather for a few days. Then that ridge pushes East as another ridge sets up around 140w in the Central Pacific by the end of next week. This will open back up the storm door to some colder storms coming down the East side of the ridge. The location of the ridge at 140w would mean we will get a series of cold but smaller storms.

There are going to be quite a few storms coming across the Pacific from next weekend and beyond so the pattern of a storm every other or every couple of days looks to continue from the 11th through the 20th. Around the 16th the ridge may retrograde further west towards 150-160w allowing the storms to dig and pick up more moisture. The best chance at another big storm looks to be if/when this happens, possibly around the 19th. Now that we are in March with a stronger sun it should be nice between each storm and then a shot of cold and snow with each. Stay tuned....BA

More Snow This Weekend......

2011-03-03T08:22:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another 10 inches on top in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 14 inches. Sierra is now sitting at around 108% of the average annual snowfall. Sun and clouds today with maybe a few more snow showers maybe adding up to an inch or two more throughout the day.

Temps warm nicely on Friday and Saturday into the 30's & 40's ahead of the next storm arriving Saturday night. The models are looking a little more positive with the details of the storm for Sunday and Monday. They are showing snow levels slightly lower so I feel a little more confident they may not go much above 7000 ft. They also show the precip being fairly light during the warm part of the storm on Sunday with the heaviest precip to our North.

Then a cold front approaches on Sunday night and drops the snow levels below lake level. Models are showing the heaviest precip coming with the cold front so we could get decent snow even at lake level Sunday night into Monday. Models are showing only .25-.75 inches of liquid ahead of the cold front, so around 4-8 inches on top. Then an inch or more of liquid with the cold front and with the snow showers behind the front on Monday. That would mean we could get 6-12 inches at the base and a storm total of up to 2 feet on top.

A break Tuesday-Thursday next week as the ridge moves into the Central Pacific. Models this morning are putting it a little further East around 140-150w instead of 150-160w. That would just prevent the storms from digging as much off the coast and not be quite as strong. It looks like back to back cold storms Friday & Sunday the 11th & 13th. Depending on how far the ridge allows them to dig off the coast will determine how much snow but these are cold storms with snow levels below lake level.

Looks like another break around mid-month before another storm approaches the coast around the 19th. The ridge in the Pacific may begin to amplify and expand North the third week of March causing this storm to be a cut-off. If not then subsequent storms may be as we get into cut-off low season heading into spring. I am expecting the storms to begin to lose their mojo towards the end of the month as the jetstream weakens an moves further North for the spring. We have at least 3-4 more potentially good storms before then.

I will post the snowpack, water numbers, and a February recap sometime over the next few days. BA

To 500 and Beyond.....

2011-03-02T08:15:00.000-08:00

First wave of the storm overnight fell apart as it cleared the crest. Sierra picked up 3 inches of snow bringing us just 3 inches shy now of 500 inches on the season.

There is a cold front approaching from the West as well as some heavier bands of snow. Then behind the cold front this afternoon convective snow showers continue into tonight. Expecting another 4-8 inches on the mountain today bringing storm totals to 7-11 inches.

There are a couple more waves of moisture that will rotate in tonight and through the day on Thursday. Looking for another 3-6 inches tonight and 3-6 during the day on Thursday. That will bring storm totals into the 1-2 foot range by the time the snow ends Thursday night.

We get a break on Friday & Saturday before the next storm moves in on Saturday night. This storm is tapping subtropical moisture from all the way down near Hawaii. This will make this storm warmer than the current storm with higher snow levels. I am expecting snow levels to be above the base lodge around 7000 ft. through Sunday until a cold front moves through Sunday night. 1-2 feet of thick snow can be expected on top above 7000 ft. Snow showers could continue through Monday as another wave rotates through behind the storm. This could bring a few more inches.

We get another break the middle of next week as the pattern undergoes a shift in the Pacific. The ridge has been over the Bering Sea allowing storms to move straight across the Pacific this week and pick up warm subtropical moisture. Next week the ridge is going to move South back to around 150-160w & 40n in the North Pacific. This is where it was the past 2 weeks, and is the ideal location for colder storms. The storms starting the end of next week and going through mid-March will go up and over the ridge and down the West coast as colder storms that will bring accumulating snows to all elevations. The storm door still looks to remain open for at least the next few weeks. BA

Above Average..........

2011-02-28T07:57:00.000-08:00

What a great weekend of soft powder as Sierra has now picked up 14 inches over the seasonal average of 480 inches as of Saturday. That is now over 41 feet of snow so far this season and we still have 2 months to go.

Not much of a break here for a few days before our next storm moves in on Wednesday. This storm is much warmer and is working with less liquid than the last few storms so it will basically act to compress the base and freshen up the slopes with snow of a thicker variety.

Temps today will be in the 30's and then tomorrow we break into the 40's with the warm flow out ahead of the storm. A cold low pressure spinning in the Northeast Pacific is going to pull a warmer storm coming across the Pacific up its East side. That will push a stream of moisture through our area with a cold front on the backside.

Snow levels may come up to right around lake level when the precip starts late Tuesday night, but will then fall during the day on Wednesday. Light snowfall could continue into the day on Thursday with a moist flow behind the main storm. Right now liquid amounts are enough to bring around 6-12 inches at the base and 12-18 inches on top.

Things begin to clear out by Friday and we have another little break until the next storm arrives on Sunday. This storm looks to bring similar amounts of precip as the storm this week. Then it looks like another break next Tue-Thu before the next storm is at our doorstep by Friday.

By the end of next week it looks as if the ridge may shift South from the Bering Sea to around 160w in the Central Pacific. This would bring the return of colder storms dropping down the East side of the ridge from around the 10th going towards mid-month. It definitely looks like an active period for at least the next few weeks. BA

Triple It......

2011-02-25T08:07:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up 14 inches in the past 24 hours as of 6 a.m. and the heaviest part of the storm is still to come today. The moisture streak and cold front have been slow to move South and will finally push through today bringing heavy snowfall.

Temps have actually risen about 5 degrees in the early morning hours as some warm air gets drawn up ahead of the cold front. That has decreased snow ratios briefly from about 25:1 to 20:1 on the mountain. As the cold front moves through today we will see the heaviest snow of the storm, and the temps will drop and snow ratios will increase again. Models show that a good amount of the precip is still to fall today with 1.25-1.5 inches of liquid. Expect another 1-2 feet at the base and 2-3 feet on top by Saturday morning.

Models are in pretty good agreement that we start to clear out and dry out Saturday morning with just some lingering snow showers. Temps will be cold with highs maybe not getting out of the single digits on the summit and the teens at the base. Sunday and Monday we warm up pretty quickly back into the 20's & 30's with brief ridging and a Southerly flow ahead of the next big dump next week.

Another low will drop down the Pacific NW coast next week bringing the cold Northern branch of the jetstream with it. The ridge in the Central Pacific will retrograde North and West allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to come across the Pacific and merge with the Northern branch over CA by Wednesday. This will be the setup for more heavy snow measured in feet Wednesday through Friday next week.

The La Nina is weakening as we go towards spring and that may be allowing the Southern branch of the jetstream to finally get some energy. The MJO is also forecasted to strengthen over the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks. I know you may not believe me after it did nothing in January, but now the La Nina is weaker and won't limit the convection as much. Teleconnections are ideal for storms to continue into the Second week of March and maybe beyond. More on that after this storm.....BA

It's Looming......

2011-02-24T10:57:00.000-08:00

The main low is spinning off the coast of Seattle this morning with lots of cold air depicted by the popcorn shaped clouds. When you see that it means there is really cold air over the ocean picking up moisture off the relatively warmer water. On the South side of the circulation a moisture streak is being pulled into Northern CA from a stationary low and area of moisture in the Central Pacific. This is adding moisture to the air that blowing in from the West this morning and is causing light snow showers to begin to form as the air is lifted.

This kind of snow will stay light through mid-day bringing maybe a couple of inches until the the moisture streak moves further South this afternoon and the snowfall becomes heavier. By tonight the cold moist flow off the Pacific will be in full force with heavy snow and then even heavier snow tomorrow as the cold front moves through. The heavy snow will last through the day on Friday before lightening Friday night as the storm shifts South. With the very cold air in place there could still be significant accumulation Friday night. Then on Saturday snow showers in the morning may give way to the sun poking through by afternoon, very similar to last Saturday.

Looking at the models this morning the GFS has caught up now with the other models with an average of 1.5-1.75 inches of total liquid by Saturyday. We will have snow ratios averaging 20:1 at the base into Saturday and 25:1 or more on top.

I will break it down for you into 12 hour periods again like i like to do. At the base: 2-4 today, 10-15 tonight, 10-15 tomorrow, 3-6 tomorrow night = 2-3+ feet by Saturday. On top: 3-6 today, 15-20 tonight, 15-20 tomorrow, 4-8 tomorrow night = 3-4+ feet by Saturday. We will have to wait until Sunday morning for the final totals as the snowshowers linger into Saturday.

Storm train still lined up next week to bring us more storms starting Wednesday. More on that after we get through this storm. Was I too low in October on my prediction of 125% of average snowfall for Tahoe this season? BA

Above Average.......

2011-02-23T10:51:00.000-08:00

Not much change in the short-term forecast with the storm moving in tomorrow afternoon/evening. Snow totals haven't really changed since yesterday's post. Only change is to possibly speed up the storm slightly and have it clearing out by Saturday morning. Heaviest snow should fall Thursday night into Friday morning. Sierra only needs 7 inches to hit the seasonal snowfall average of 480 inches, so we should be above average by Friday.

The cold with this storm will be as big of a story as the snowfall. Highs in the teens on the mountains Friday and Saturday, and they may not get out of the single digits above 8000 ft. at the summits of most resorts. One of the few times in Tahoe when you may actually want to wear one of those neoprene face masks. You know there will still be people with only sweatshirts on, but they may lose some skin on Saturday.

With an airmass this cold we are going to get some decent snow totals although we are only working with 1-2 inches of liquid. With snow ratios of 20-30:1 throughout the storm we will have snowfall totals of 2-3 feet at the base, and 3-4+ feet on top. The GFS this morning only had 1-1.25 inches of liquid but the NAM had 2-2.25 inches. That is a big difference so I will watch the models closely today to try and figure out if we will get the high or low end of the forecast.

By Sunday & Monday the sun is shining and temps begin to rebound quickly back into the 20's & 30's as we get a Southwest flow and a weak ridge ahead of the next storm moving across the Pacific. The pattern next week will be differen't than what we have seen the past 2 weeks. The ridge wants to setup near the Aleutians or maybe even further North over the Bering Sea. So not only will there be storms coming down the coast from the North, but also from across the Pacific as they can easily pass under the new position of the ridge.

How the storms coming from the two directions interact is the question. The storms coming from West to East across the Pacific will be able to tap into subtropical moisture so they will be strong and much warmer than the storms we have seen. The storms coming down from the North will be cold. It may be the perfect combination as the cold lows from the North can push enough cold into the storms from the West to keep snow levels just at or below lake level.

The models show a storm next week for Tuesday/Wednesday, Thursday/Friday, and another Sunday/Monday the 6th & 7th of March. The only thing that could happen is that the lows pump a ridge up along the West coast far enough to keep the heaviest snow to our North, but that is not shown in the models. I am still not seeing anything long-term that would stop this pattern. The next two weeks should be quite stormy with normal Sierra style snow. Stay tuned......BA

Lightest Snow of the Season....

2011-02-22T12:39:00.000-08:00

Two more days of sun and highs in the 20's today and tomorrow before the clouds increase on Thursday as the next storm tracks down the West coast. With the ridge in the North Pacific driving air down from the North this storm will bring some of the coldest air of the season, especially during a snowstorm. This storm reminds me of the Christmas Eve storm in 2008 where we don't have a lot of moisture to work with, but with extremely high snow:water ratios we will see significant snowfall.

The snow should begin Thursday night and last through Friday night bringing 1-2 inches of liquid. To narrow it a little more let's go with 1.25-1.75 inches of liquid. Temps will be in teens Thursday night & even Friday above 7000 ft., and then the single digits Friday night. Snow ratios will be between 15:1 & 30:1 throughout the storm, but let's take an average of 20:1 at lake level and 25:1 above 7000 ft. Multiply that by the liquid and we should see snow totals of 2-3 feet at the base, with 3-4 feet on top. If you thought the snow quality was amazing last week wait until this Friday & Saturday.

There are a couple of discrepencies in the models on how fast the storm moves out on Saturday & how much moisture it can pull from moisture coming under the ridge. Some models have us clearing out by morning and other have the snow lasting through the day on Saturday. The fastest models with a limited moisture tap put us at the lower end of the forecasted snowfall and the slowest models with the biggest moisture tap could add another 6-12 inches to the forecasted totals. Will have to watch this closely over the next day or two.

Looking at next week the forecast over the past two weeks of the ridge setting up further West again near the Aleutian Islands is being shown by the models. Another low will work its way down the coast the beginning of next week while a storm comes under the ridge in the North Pacific. It looks as if the low will pull the storm into the West coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. This storm would be quite strong with a subtropical tap and cold air filtering in from the low to the North. We will be talking normal snow ratios of 10-12:1 but still see significant snow due to the amount of liquid.

This pattern looks as if it could continue with a ridge near the Aleutians, lows coming down its East side from the North Pacific down the West Coast, and moisture coming underneath the ridge and into the West Coast. It could be the perfect pattern for big snowstorms next week and the week after. Things can always change in the long-range, but looking at the teleconnections there is nothing yet to suggest the storm door closing. We may just have to wait for the jetstream to weaken as we go into spring. I told you the 10 feet last week was just the beginning. BA

2011-02-21T11:01:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another inch last night bringing the 7 day total to 104 inches, and the season total to 474 inches. Sierra is now at 99% of the annual snowfall average, just 6 inches shy and it's only Feb 21st!

We may see some light snow showers today and tonight as the the storm off the coast grazes us. You can see the storm clearly on the satellite as it rotates down the coast and throws clouds over Tahoe. Temps will stay cold with highs in the 20's on the mountain through Wednesday.

Then a cold and slowing moving low will move down the coast and rotate in moisture off of the Pacific starting sometime on Thursday. This should continue into Saturday as the low sits almost stationary off the Pacific NW coast. The models are back and forth on whether or not the low can pull in moisture from a storm coming under the ridge which is sitting around 150w in the North Pacific. Without that happening we are looking at 20:1 snow ratios and 1-2 inches of liquid, so that should be around 2-3 feet of snow. Depending on whether the low can tap that additional moisture and how much, we could be talking more snow.

One thing that tends to happen with storms in this kind of pattern is that the snow amounts go up as the storm gets closer like this past storm. Areas of convection wrap into the coast that are not picked up by the models this far out. We have to keep an eye on this storm over the next couple of days.

The trend for next week over the past several days was that the ridge stays around 150w in the North Pacific and more lows come down the coast bringing more snow starting as early as next Monday. This morning the last 2 runs of the GFS model have a different scenario. It suggests that the ridge moves up over Alaska with a large low moving into the Gulf of Alaska forming sort of a Rex Block. This would delay the onset of the snow next week till later in the week as the pattern develops.

If this pattern were to develop it would mean storms would be rotated into the West Coast by the low but they would be pulling in moisture from across the Pacific. This is the type of pattern that brings in warmer storms with more liquid, although still cold enough to snow on the mountains. A similar pattern brought us the big snows in December.

Either way the pattern looks to remain active over the next few weeks with a strong -PNA and no blocking downstream to jam up the pattern. We should see no more than 3-4 days between storms into the 2nd week of March. The only thing with a pattern of a low in the Gulf of Alaska the exact location can make a difference of whether the Pacific NW or CA gets the brunt of the storms. Stay tuned.......BA

Winding Down......

2011-02-19T06:45:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another 22 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 8.5 feet. We are now at 455 inches on the year, only 25 inches shy of the seasonal average.

Snow will become showery today with only a few more inches expected as the main low rotates inland. Then tomorrow through Tuesday we should see the sun with cold temps with highs in the 20's.

A slow moving cold low moves down the coast starting the middle of the week. This will bring a return of snow starting some time between Wednesday and Thursday, and lasting into the weekend. Current models are throwing out liquid amounts of 2-3 inches and snow ratios on the mountains will be 20:1. It's too early to make an accurate prediction, but it looks as if we will pick up somewhere in the 2-5 foot range over the 2-4 day period if the storm stays on the current projected track. Models tend to increase amounts as these kinds of storms get closer as we learned with this storm.

The pattern stays favorable for some stronger storms going into the first week of March as the PNA stays negative and the ridge is out at 160w. BA

Revenge is Sweet.......

2011-02-18T08:42:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another 43 inches in the past 24 hours making that the biggest 24 & 48 hour snowfall this season. That brings the 4 day storm total to 4 inches shy of 7 feet on top. It also brings the season to date snowfall to 432 inches which is 90% of the seasonal average. This is the 3rd time this season we have gotten pounded the week before a holiday weekend.

Front did just as expected and stalled over Tahoe last night. The band of moisture is weakening this morning so expect the snow to lighten up. Then another wave will rotate inland over Central CA as the low comes down the coast and pulls it Northward this evening over Tahoe. That should bring one more round of heavier snow tonight. Looking for 3-6 inches at the base today with 4-8 inches on top. Then another 5-10 inches at the base tonight and 10-15 inches on top.

Snow showers will continue Saturday morning before tapering off in the afternoon. Only expecting a few more inches of accumulation on Saturday. Storm totals for the week should be 5-7 ft. at the base and 8-9 feet on top by the time we clear out tomorrow. That would be enough snow to last us for a while, but there is plenty more on the way.

We should see things dry out for Sunday-Tuesday as the next storm dives down off the coast and misses us. Then on Wednesday the next cold low pressure makes its way down the coast. The trend is over water right now, so the storm should pick up moisture off the ocean and spin in several waves of moisture through Friday. The temps will be really cold so the snow ratios will be high again and we should be measuring in feet.

Then the ridge moves back about 10 degrees in the Pacific next weekend allowing the storms to pick up more moisture. We may see storms almost continuously through the first week of March. I don't see anything in the long range over the next 2 weeks that points to anything other than cold and snow. La Nina is getting her revenge in a big way. BA

Keep It Coming......

2011-02-17T07:55:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up another 21 inches in the last 24 hours bringing the storm totals to 38 inches. It also brings the season total to 389 inches which is now just 7.5 feet short of our annual average, and the season is only a little over halfway through. We are also barely halfway through the 5 day storm and there is a lot more snow coming!

We have an interesting storm pattern developing for today through Saturday. First off we will see the heavy snow move in a little earlier than expected as it arrives this morning with the low strengthening off the coast. The storm will drag another front through Tahoe today and then that front is going to stall tonight over the area. Tomorrow the front will tilt perpendicular as energy pushes into Southern CA so the flow will be more from the South than the West. That will favor the heaviest snow South of the lake including Sierra at Tahoe.

I will break down the projected snow totals pretty simple since we should pick up around .5-.75 inches of liquid every 12-18 hours. At the base 8-12 inches today, 8-12 tonight, 8-12 Friday, & 8-12 Friday night into Saturday will add up to another 3-4 feet by Saturday. Up top 12-16 inches today, 12-16 tonight, 12-16 Friday, & 12-16 Friday night into Saturday will add up to another 4-5 feet by Saturday. 5 day storm totals by the time we clear out on Sunday should be in the 5-6 foot range at the base and 6-8 foot range on top.

Things clear out on Sunday and the next storm for Monday and Tuesday is still trending far enough off the coast that we only see clouds and maybe a few flakes. Another inside slider storm for Wednesday and Thursday will bring cold and maybe some light snow showers. Next week looks to be more cold than snowy with mostly off and on snow showers throughout the week.

The following weekend the ridge, that is pushed a little East in the Pacific next week by a strong low, looks like it will redevelop back out around 160w South of the Aleutians. That would bring the return of stronger storms with more moisture and over water trajectory. Stay tuned.......BA

Barely Getting Started........

2011-02-16T07:33:00.000-08:00

Sierra picked up 8 inches as of 5 a.m. this morning and you can add several more inches to that by the time we open. The cold front slowed a little so the onset of the heavier snow didn't start until after midnight. The heaviest snow will fall this morning, and it will snow into the weekend with several more feet still on tap.

The cold front is pushing through this morning which will trigger the heavy snowfall and increasing snow ratios. By this evening we should pick up another 10-20 inches. Tonight the snow showers will become much lighter, but with 20-30:1 snow ratios whatever falls will pile up quickly. Snow projections from yesterday still look to be on track by tomorrow morning with 1.5-2.5 feet at the base and 2-3+ feet on top.

Tomorrow we start with light snow showers during the day and then another wave of heavier snow rotates in tomorrow night. The steadier snow should last into the day on Friday. Looking for another 4-8 inches during the day tomorrow at the base and 5-10 inches on top. Then we should pick up another 12-18 inches at the base and 1-2 feet on top Thursday night and Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday another wave of moisture rotates in but it looks like the bulk of the moisture will stay to our South so we will only see light snow showers. We could pick up a few to several more inches depening on the exact track. By Sunday morning I am expecting 5 day storm totals of 3-4 feet at the base and 4-6 feet on top.

The temps stay cold with highs in the 20's right through the weekend and into next week as this pattern of cold and storms dropping from the North continues. After a break on Sunday and President's Day, the trend is to bring another cold storm down the coast. The past few model runs have the storm coming down the coast a little further West meaning the heaviest precip stays just to our West. That could easily change and if the storm tracks closer to the coast that could mean a lot more snow. For right now it looks like at least several inches of snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

The ridge moves back a little in the North Pacific to around 160w where it is the beginning of this week. That should allow the storms to pick up a bit more moisture off the Pacific. As of right now it appears that we may see a similar pattern the last weekend of the month and into the first week of March as we are seeing this week.

So we still have quite a bit of winter to deal with the next few weeks. I still do not see anything long-term that would close the storm door. Isn't this fun? BA

We Waited, Good Things Came.......

2011-02-15T09:28:00.000-08:00

This is what we have all been waiting for over the past 6 weeks. The big snow is finally at our doorstep.

Sierra picked up an inch of snow from the light snow showers in the pre-frontal moisture that we saw yesterday.

Not much change to the forecasted snow totals other than to start adding to them for Thursday and Friday. It's easy to look at a total precip map for the week and say what the grand total will be, but the tricky part is trying to break it down so you know how much powder will be on the slopes each morning. So let's break the storm down piece by piece.

Snow showers should move in this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves closer. Then tonight the heavy precip arrives and spills over the crest into all areas. By tomorrow morning we should see around 10-15 inches at the base with 15-20 on top. Then it continues to snow hard all day tomorrow with snowfall rates that could exceed 3 inches an hour. By tomorrow night snow totals should be around 1.5-2.5 feet at at the base and 3-4 feet at the summit.

The biggest 2-day combined snowfall this season so far was on Sierra was 58 inches 11/20-11/21. Let's see how this storm compares.

Then we have very cold air in place with a moist and unstable atmosphere Wednesday night through Thursday. Snow showers will continue off and on especially on the mountains into Thursday night. We will have snow ratios of 15-20:1 at the base and 20-30:1 at the summit, so the snow showers will pile up quickly. We could pick up another 6-12+ inches by Friday morning bringing the totals to 2-3.5 feet at the base and with 3.5-5 feet at the summit.

Then there is another low that spins down the coast on Friday. Models still don't have a handle on the exact track but the trend is to bring it closer to us. Friday into Saturday we could pick up another 6-12+ inches from this storm. 5 day totals by Sunday could be around 2.5-4 feet at the base and 4-6 feet on the summit. This is going to be very light and powdery snow so you may want to break out the snorkels.

Take a deep breathe because unlike November and December the fun is going to last longer than a week. Next week the storms look smaller and cold as the ridge is a little closer and the storms come down the coast with less over water trajectory to pick up moisture. Then the following week going into the first week of March the pattern points to a possible redevelopment of the ridge further West. That would allow them to dig again and pick up more moisture. It looks like the storm door should stay open into the beginning of March.

Stay tuned for updates on the storm.........BA

Just the Primer......

2011-02-14T09:04:00.000-08:00

Snow started falling on the mountain around 6:30 a.m. This is from a band of snow moving through associated with the area of moisture that was pulled up ahead of the main cold front. The band should move through by afternoon and we should not see more than a couple of inches on the mountain.

We should see light snow showers on the mountain through Tuesday with a few more inches of accumulation. This pre-frontal moisture is just the primer for the big event Tuesday night and Wednesday. We should see heavy snowfall for about 12-18 hours making this one of the longest single storms this season.

Snow should taper to showers by wednesday night and the snow showers could last into Thursday. I'm thinking we will see the sun at some point on Thursday with amazing conditions. Total snowfall by Thursday should be around 2-2.5 feet at the base and 3-3.5 feet on top. That is just the beginning of a stormy pattern setting up.

Models still can't agree on the exact track for the wave moving through Friday into Saturday. If we take a split of the models then we should pick up several more inches. Looks like we get a break Sunday and President's day before another cold storm moves down the coast Monday night and could last into Wednesday. With the cold air and moisture being pulled in off the Pacific we could be talking a few more feet of snow on the mountain.

Next week's pattern is a little different than this week as the ridge is a bit further East in the North Pacific. The storms will be cold and will be dropping down the coast. With that kind of pattern the exact track is more important as to how much over water trajectory they have. If they come down over land they have less snow than if they come down just off the coast. We should see several storms come down the from the North in that fashion next week and into the final weekend of the month.

Looking super long-range at the first week of March it appears that the ridge may redevelop further West in the Pacific once again. That would open the door to another strong low forming in the Northeast Pacific similar to this week. Winter is far from over.....BA

A White Week......

2011-02-13T09:50:00.000-08:00

I have been looking at lots of models over the past 2 days trying to get a better handle on the details for the storms this week.

Light snow showers could develop Monday afternoon. Because of the angle of the jetstream as the trough digs down off the coast the winds will be out of the South and Southwest. That will keep the precip light until the cold front gets closer later on Tuesday. Only a few inches possible on Monday night and Tuesday.

Then the real show starts as the cold front approaches Tuesday night. Heavy snow will move in for all areas and will last through the day on Wednesday. By Wednesday night we should have picked up 18-24 inches at the base and over 2 feet on top.

Snow showers will continue Wednesday night and Thursday with snow ratios of 20:1 above 7000 ft. So even though the liquid amounts will be light the snow will pile up fast in the bands of snow showers. Depending on where the heaviest snow bands go we could see several more inches.

The GFS is the outlier showing things clearing out for President's weekend. The other models show another wave of snow for Friday and Saturday. Depening on whether this storm comes to our South or just over us we could see anything from a dusting up to another foot of snow. Hopefully the models can come into some sort of agreement with the track of the storm today or tomorrow. Either way it will be cold with highs in the teens and 20's into President's weekend. Total snowfall by Saturday could be 2-3 feet at the base and 3-4 feet on top.

Models are still all over the place for week 2. It looks as if the ridge out in the Pacific will be a little further East towards the Gulf of Alaska. This would continue to drive cold air into the area and bring light-moderate sized storms down the coast. Because they would not have the over water trajectory like this weeks storm they would have lighter snow amounts, but with the really cold air the snow could still pile up.

Stay tuned as we fine tune the snow amounts and details for this week. BA

Only 3 Days To Go.......

2011-02-11T09:34:00.000-08:00

Just a quick update to details today. There looks to be an area of moisture that will get drawn up ahead of the trough on Monday, so snow could start falling by Monday night especially on the crest.

The snowfall will pickup in intensity on Tuesday as the jetstream approaches, and then really crank up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front moves through. Once the cold front moves through the temps are going to crash and the snow ratios will increase. This will make the snow really pile up fast. The trick to predicting snowfall totals is knowing when the snow ratios will increase. There is a big difference in snow piling up at 10:1 vs. 20:1.

For right now I am guestimating 2-3+ feet by Thursday morning based on total liquid of 2-3 inches. The wild card next week is what happens with the second wave on Friday into Saturday. The Euro has it digging down the coast and coming in to our South and we only get snow showers into the weekend. The GFS says it comes over us and we could see another foot. If the the GFS is right 5 day snow totals would be in the 3-4+ foot range. Either way it will be really cold and unsettled into President's weekend.

Long range models still show another low pressure moving into the Northeast Pacific during ski week. That could mean that we see a similar pattern to next week with a cold front and several waves of moisture rotating through. Stay tuned......BA

No Hype Here.......

2011-02-10T11:30:00.001-08:00

There is a lot of snow and cold coming over the next couple of weeks as we get stuck in a long wave trough pattern instead of ridge pattern. A reminder that my snowfall predictions are always conservative based on what I see in the models.

There is not much change since yesterday so there isn't really that much to go over today. The only change is that the storm for Tuesday is slowing slightly and may not start until during the day. The slowing will also allow the storm to dig a little further which means it will be able to pick up a bit more moisture off the Pacific and the cold will come further South. The GFS shows this nicely on the 12z run with 2-4 feet of snow by Thursday.

My prediction stands at 2-4 feet by Saturday to stay on the conservative side and because the track of the second wave rotating around the low is in question. The trough may dig far enough South that the second batch of heavy snow Thursday & Friday may aim the best dynamics to our South, but we will still get snow. If the track stays further North then we could be adding a couple more feet.

President's weekend we will be in the wake of the storms and the amount of cold unstable air we are left with will keep things unsettled. We could see off and on snow showers through the weekend. The pattern is still forecasted to reload as another strong low takes its place in the Northeast Pacific for ski week. That should rotate in several more cold storms and significant accumulations.

Stay tuned.......BA

The Revenge of La Nina......

2011-02-09T11:35:00.000-08:00

I haven't been posting everyday this week because nothing is changing and that is a very good sign for us. Consistency in the models everyday just increases confidence in the coming weather pattern next week. I hope you haven't given up on winter yet because La Nina is not happy that she has not had her chance yet to blast the West Coast with cold and snow during real winter thanks to the -AO and +PNA the past 6 weeks. She is ready for revenge and it is going to be sweet for us.

For Sierra the season isn't even half over so there is still plenty of winter headed our way. It's a stretch, but if we can get as much snow the second half of winter as we did the first half we will be talking over 600 inches of snow. Need around 10.5 feet to hit the seasonal average and we could get at least half of that by the end of the month.

I am ready to once again be the only weather person to start talking snowfall totals a week or more out. This is something I like to do because it gives you an idea of what may be coming even though the details can change.

So anyway let's get to the good stuff, the snowfall for next week and beyond. It looks like we are going to be in the perfect pattern the next 2 weeks or more of the ridge out at 160-170w and a nice long wave trough will sit in the East Pacific into the West coast. This will allow several low pressures to setup in the Northeast Pacific and spin waves of moisture into the West coast. Some of these will have subtropical moisture taps but the lows will spin in plenty of cold for all snow.

The first low will be in the Northeast Pacific by Monday and will send the first wave into the coast by Monday night. We should wake up to snowfall on Tuesday morning. The low will spin several waves of moisture into the coast with what looks to be 2 heavier bursts on Tuesday and Thursday. Preliminary estimates from the Euro for Tue-Fri is 2-3 inches of liquid which would be in the 2-4 foot range. That doesn't account for higher snow ratios that could occur with colder air. I think that is a good starting point but in the Tuesday-Saturday time frame that could be shooting low.

We should see a brief break sometime over President's weekend as the pattern reloads with a new ridge at 170w and a new low in the Northeast Pacific. Then we could do the same thing all over again the following week with similar snowfall amounts. Looking in the super long-range fantasy charts and the teleconnection forecast the pattern could reload a third time towards the end of the month. Even if it doesn't we should have gotten plenty of snow from the previous 2 weeks.

The long range can change but confidence in big snowfall next week is high and continues to increase daily as the models have been singing the same tune for over a week now. It's snowing again in Dallas today but if it's 80 degrees there next week and 70 on the East Coast we should be getting blasted with cold and snow. Stay tuned.......BA

Back to Winter........

2011-02-07T11:34:00.001-08:00

The ridge is no longer off the coast of CA but is now further North off the Pacific NW & British Columbia. That is going to help push a strong cold front through later today. You will feel the difference tomorrow with highs only in the 20's and 30's. The temps should then moderate through the end of the week into the 40's.

The PNA is now negative and the teleconnections are aligned for a progressive pattern and no long periods of ridging for at least the next few weeks. The ridge is going to move East this weekend as a new ridge forms out around 160-170w just South of the Aleutians. That is going to open the door to storms and cold air. The first storm this weekend will weaken as it hits the back of the departing ridge which is common with the first storm after a long dry spell. Not expecting much if any precip over the weekend as this storm is just the full back clearing the way for bigger storms next week.

The first big storm should arrive next Tuesday and last into Wednesday. The second storm arrives Thursday and lasts through Friday. These will be cold storms with low snow levels which will aid in the accumulations with high snow ratios. Right now it's too early for predicting amounts but we will be measuring in feet over the 5 day period of Tuesday Saturday.

The pattern stays favorable for cold storms to continue to dive in going into the end of the month. With the ridge wanting to make its home out around 160w, low pressures should continue to drop into the Pacific NW and drag snow and cold into Tahoe. We will have breaks with possible brief ridges, but any ridges should be short lived and continue East allowing a storm every few days.

Things will look and feel a whole lot different around here next week. Winter is only half way through so be prepared for the cold and snow that is coming. Stay tuned........BA

January Recap.....

2011-02-05T17:39:00.001-08:00

January as we all know was a dry month and fairly warm overall. The Tahoe Basin received 21% of average precip. That came on the heels of an October of 400% of average and a December of 200% of average, so we are still at 150% of average to date on the water year 4 months in.

The snowpack report for Feb. 1st had us at 125% of average for this time of year. That is down from 200% of average on Jan. 1st, but that was the record for an early season snowpack. After the cold in the beginning of January temps warmed and the we ended up at 3.6 degrees above average in South Lake.

So the snowfall and snowpack are both above average still for this time in the season and we still have another half of a winter to go. That second half of winter should be starting by this time next weekend. No change in the models as the ridge still looks to setup in the Central Pacific opening the door to cold and snow next weekend and beyond.

By midweek we should be in a nice teleconnection pattern of -PNA, +NAO & +AO. The PNA(Pacific North American) is actually forecasted to go quite negative by the end of the month so we should not see any signs of the ridge pattern we saw in January for a while. Since we are starting the month above average for snowfall we only really need an average month Feb.-Apr. to have an above average season. Let's hope for a big season though. BA

3-2-1........Snow Time

2011-02-04T10:45:00.001-08:00

A quick update here this morning on the long-range, and I think you'll like it. Models are trending further West with the ridging week 2 and then North week 3. They have the ridge all the way out around 160-170w. The first storm should arrive sometime around the 12th-14th.

This pattern shift will start now and will go through a transition that will take about a week. The ridge will expand North brining mild weather this weekend and then start moving West the beginning of next week. This will allow some colder air to drop down and for those in Utah you may get some snow dropping down to our East. Then a decent sized low moves into the Gulf of Alaska replacing the ridge next weekend and then begins to send storms into CA.

We are still 7-10 days away, but consistency is improving with the possibility that we have a week straight of storms the 14th-21st. Then if the ridge does shift a little further North towards the Aleutians we could see undercutting of the jetstream and a second week of snowfall the 4th week of February.

I am going to count down the 3 snowstorms targeting the East Coast over the next week because after the 3rd snowstorm they get the pattern is going to flip. So it will be 3 (Sunday), 2 (Tuesday), 1 (Thursday). Interestingly the storm on Thursday could be quite impressive, some are already alluding to the blizzard of the century.

It is also snowing again in Dallas today and but the sign for us that winter has finally arrive will be when Dallas is at 80 degrees and Philadelphia is at 70 degrees the second half of February. It's still too early to make any bold predictions but the ingredients are there for us to get quite a lot of snow the second half of the month. Stay tuned.......BA

Snap........

2011-02-02T11:19:00.000-08:00

About 10 more days to go until the cold in the East snaps back into the West. This is one of the strongest La Ninas on record and the pattern is one of the strangest for La Nina. In the past 100 years only one time has the East had a colder than average winter with the onset of a moderate-strong La Nina. But even that winter (1916-1917) the cold wasn't as extensive as this winter. Will be interesting to watch because historically the East will have even colder winter the next 2-3 years after the onset of the La Nina.

This has all messed with my forecast for this winter because the cold would normally be in the West this first winter of the strong La Nina & so would the trough and jetstream. We got lucky in November & December with blocking that formed in the North Pacific suppressing the jet underneath into CA for a week of 100+ inches of snow in each month. But that is all we have really gotten and it really had nothing to do with a typical La Nina pattern.

Historically we should have a wet & cold winter this first winter of La Nina here and then drier the next couple of winters with a weaker La Nina. So if I'm right we need to have a big second half to our winter here starting in mid-February. Mid-February is about the mid-point of our winter here and the good news is that Sierra has seen 73% of our annual snowfall already, so we have a head start. My original forecast in the fall was for 125% of average snowfall, mostly based on the average of the snowfall we received the last 3 strong La Ninas.

Valentine's Day looks like it will be the most noticeable turning point in the pattern. With the higher sun angle and the warming starting in the atmosphere we should continue to see a break-up of the cold stronghold in the East. We are currently in a +AO, +NAO, & +PNA pattern. 2 out of 3 things we need for a change and the PNA should go negative over the next week so we will have all 3. Once that happens the pattern should become very progressive with any ridges not sticking around too long.

Looking at the model forecasts we see the ridge expand Northward off the coast this week which means the temps will warm going into the weekend. Then next week we see retrogression of the ridge Westard in the Pacific. At first this should drive down some colder air just to our East like we saw yesterday, which will cool our temps. Then as we head into Valentine's Day weekend and the following week watch out! We could see some of the coldest air of the season in CA as the cold in the East snaps back into the West as the ridge is out around 150w in the Pacific. This cold should push pretty far South in CA so look out in L.A. for cold coming as well.

The cold may be a bigger story than the snow, although we will begin to see cold storms move in as well. It looks like we will finally get into our typical La Nina pattern finally. The weather should look like the original winter forecast map from the fall which you can find on the Weather Charts page, with the cold and snow in the Pacific NW.

The biggest thing on everyone's mind is the snowfall. The big question will be exactly how far West in the Pacific will the ridge setup? Out at 160w then we should see some big storms the 3rd week of February. 150w where the long-range charts have it now would mean smaller-moderate sized storms. With the cold in place that could still mean big amounts with the high snow:water ratios. If it is a bit closer around 140w then we may just see lots of cold with small storms like the one this past weekend.

Either way the entire pattern is changing and the rigde in the West and trough in the East pattern of the past month will soon be gone. Plan on lots of cold starting in about 10 days and hope/pray for lots of snow. The East coast has 2-3 more snowstorms in the next 10 days and then their record snowfall pattern will be gone and it's their turn to thaw out as we freeze and get snow. We need 129 inches of snow to hit our annual average over the next 3 months and 249 inches to hit my forecast. That is about 43 & 83 inches per month respectively.

With this strange pattern so far and what should finally be a flip to normal La Nina, it will be interesting to see where we end up. The good news is that our 200% of average snowpack as of Jan. 1st got us through this drought with plenty of snow still on the ground and with the flip just happening now in Mid-February it doesn't look like winter will be shutting off in March like in the 07/08 La Nina. Stay tuned, January re-cap out later this week once the final numbers are in. BA