Sierra is reporting 6 inches of new snow overnight from the band of snow that moved through! Wave of moisture was a bit strong than expected with the heaviest band setting up from around Sierra at Tahoe Northeastward across the lake.
Next storm is off the coast and ready to move in this afternoon. Looking at this morning models they seem to agree on .25-.5 inches of liquid over Tahoe with .5-.75 inches over the crest. Most of the snow will fall tonight into Wednesday. Snow ratios will average 15:1 above 7000 and 12:1 at lake level. That puts us at 3-6 inches at lake level, with 4-8 inches above 7000 ft., and up to a foot on the crest in some spots.
On Thursday a warm front moves in ahead of the next storm which will trigger light snow showers with not much accumulation and snow levels rising to around lake level at 6000 ft.
Next storm for Friday reminds me of the storm from last Monday that pounded Northwest CA and gave us only an inch of snow. This storm is going to do the same with several feet possible up around Mt. Shasta. We will have to watch the jet to see how far South it sags during the storm. Models the past couple of days have been showing .5-1 inches of liquid reaching Tahoe, especially along the crest. We will have to watch this storm closely the next couple days. The GFS has a colder solution with this storm with snow levels below lake level, but some models hint at snow levels as high as 7000 ft.
Models this morning are showing a weaker storm for Sunday/Monday, and taking it to our North. This will be the start of some quieter and milder weather for next week as the ridge builds in along the CA coast. A strong jet across the Pacific is going to brings storms very close all week but it doesn't look like any close enough for accumulations. This may be a good thing as the snow levels next week will be above 7000 ft.
Ridge looks to hold strong on the models going into the second week of January. What they usually do not catch onto this far out is the MJO and increased storm activity in the Tropical Pacific. Looking for the strong block that is going to form off the Northeast coast, associated with the NAO going more negative over the next week, to start to weaken as the NAO goes more positive towards mid-January. That should alleviate the upstream block caused by the ridge stuck along the CA coast. Meanwhile, the MJO is forecast to be in the Western Pacific by the second week of Jan. and is currently strengthening. Plus the affects from El Nino should become greater into January. This should all lead to a breakthrough of the jetstream into CA by or before the middle of Jan. Stay tuned...BA
"Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work." Aristotle
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
Monday Morning Update......
Sierra is reporting 2-3 inches from the storm yesterday, mostly from the early morning snow bands that came through.
New for today is a piece of energy ahead of the next storm that will pass through tonight. Snowfall is already starting this afternooon from this first wave of moisture. Looking at the models they have .10-.25 inches of liquid over Tahoe with this first wave, with snow ratios tonight reaching 20:1 above 7000 ft. By tomorrow it looks like we could have 1-3 inches at the base, with 2-4+ inches above 7000 ft.
The next storm moves in by tomorrow night into Wednesday. Models are showing .25-.5 inches of liquid over Tahoe with snow ratios getting close to 20:1 again above 7000 ft. Looking for an additional 3-6 inches at the base, with 4-8+ inches above 7000 ft. That would make totals of 4-8 inches at the base, and 5-10+ inches above 7000 ft. by Thursday. Updated totals tomorrow on the second storm.
Storms will continue to try and break through the ridge through the weekend. Looking for another small storm on Friday, and another around Sunday/Monday. These may have snow levels just above lake level around 6500 ft.
Looking at next week it still appears that the ridge will try and block storm activity to our North and may have a bit more success than this week. Meanwhile, the MJO is quickly circling around and should be back in the Western Pacific by next week. We should see the affects on our weather by the week of the 14th with the potential for the return of bigger storms. Stay tuned......BA
New for today is a piece of energy ahead of the next storm that will pass through tonight. Snowfall is already starting this afternooon from this first wave of moisture. Looking at the models they have .10-.25 inches of liquid over Tahoe with this first wave, with snow ratios tonight reaching 20:1 above 7000 ft. By tomorrow it looks like we could have 1-3 inches at the base, with 2-4+ inches above 7000 ft.
The next storm moves in by tomorrow night into Wednesday. Models are showing .25-.5 inches of liquid over Tahoe with snow ratios getting close to 20:1 again above 7000 ft. Looking for an additional 3-6 inches at the base, with 4-8+ inches above 7000 ft. That would make totals of 4-8 inches at the base, and 5-10+ inches above 7000 ft. by Thursday. Updated totals tomorrow on the second storm.
Storms will continue to try and break through the ridge through the weekend. Looking for another small storm on Friday, and another around Sunday/Monday. These may have snow levels just above lake level around 6500 ft.
Looking at next week it still appears that the ridge will try and block storm activity to our North and may have a bit more success than this week. Meanwhile, the MJO is quickly circling around and should be back in the Western Pacific by next week. We should see the affects on our weather by the week of the 14th with the potential for the return of bigger storms. Stay tuned......BA
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