Yesterday was an interesting day watching the weather models. They came more in agreement on a big storm for Friday and the snow totals went up. NWS in Reno even put out a Special Weather Statement for 1-2 ft. of snow in the Tahoe Basin & "several feet" on the crest. It is still a little early to talk details, but I think those amounts are possible if the storm tracks just right. Temps today will be the warmest all week with highs in the 40's on the mountains to near 50 at the lake.
Next storm has picked up some speed. Should start to see some clouds tomorrow and snow tomorrow night. This morning's models are showing a storm very similar to the last storm, with 1-3 inches at lake level and 2-4 inches on top. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft. Storm clears out on Wednesday, with not much of a break in the clouds Thursday as the next storm drops in from the Gulf of Alaska.
This storm has been trending a little slower to arrive, with snow possibly holding off until the day Friday. Yesterday models had as much as 3 inches of liquid over the Sierra Crest, which would translate to over 3 ft. of snow, with a foot or two at lake level. Latest models suggest that the core of the heaviest moisture stays on the coast and loses moisture as the cold front swings through Lake Tahoe. It will be a cold storm (snow level 4000 ft.) so snow ratios on top of the mountains could be as high as 20:1. Using this morning's models that would translate to around 5-10 inches at the base with 10-15 inches on top of the mountain. These numbers will fluctuate through the week and may go higher, but it's looking pretty certain that our first dump is on the way.
Looking long range it appears that we will have a break in the storms as cold troughs dig into the East and a ridge forms near the West Coast blocking storms. Looking for a pattern change during the first week of Dec. BA
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