Champagne.........

You may not believe it looking out your window but the resorts had better than expected snowfall yesterday.  Sierra is reporting 10 inches on top so far from the storm yesterday and last night.

Snow will begin again by mid-morning with the main low approaching. This is going to be the coldest storm we have seen in a long time. Temperatures at 8500 ft. have already dipped to 15 degrees and the mid 20's at lake level. That means snow ratios of 15:1 at lake level with this storm and up to 25:1 on top of the mountains. This morning's models show around an inch of liquid with this storm. Not a huge amount, but with the abnormally cold air already in place and high snow ratios we could see some high totals.

With that being the case we're looking at an additional 12-15 inches at the base with 15-20 inches above 7000 ft, and over 2 feet above 8000 ft. with the really high snow ratios. This will be amazingly dry powder. That would put snow totals on top at up to 3 feet by tomorrow and up to 2 feet at the base by tomorrow.

Cut-off looks to be the word for the Saturday storm. As you know with cut-offs it is pretty much impossible to know exactly where they will go. We could see a decent amount of snow on the North end of the storm Saturday as it passes to our South, or see not much if it is a bit further South. This is one of those storms that we will just have to watch over the next few days.

Same thinking next week as the Pacific NW takes the brunt of the storms and we get some light snowfalls on the Southern side. Still looking at the possibility of the jet coming under a developing ridge along the West coast for week 3 El Nino style. The NAO will be headed negative and blocking will be forming over the East again. The MJO is forecast to strengthen in the Western Pacific which may help this scenario take shape. Stay tuned........BA