We are looking for any sign of a return to Winter and lots of snow for Tahoe and Sierra at Tahoe. Right now we are under the influence of a positive PNA pattern over the Pacific and North America which will make it a little harder to get big snow into the Sierra.
The nice weather this weekend will continue through Wednesday before a strong cold front pushes South out of Canada. By Thursday and Friday highs wont' get out of the 30's on the mountain. There is a chance of light snowfall as the front pushes through on Thursday. The cold air will allow for increased snowmaking and trail expansion.
We need to watch for a cut-off low that could form over Tahoe from this cold front and stall at the end of the week possibly bringing more light snowfall. Right now the weather models keep it just to our South. The quiet weather resumes next weekend before another shot of cold air and light snowfall is possible to start the following week.
Right now we are in a +PNA teleconnection pattern which favors a ridge in the West. During a +PNA the ridge will sit North of Hawaii and a trough near the Aleutian islands. That sends the storms coming across the Pacfic up into Alaska and then down into British Columbia. What it can do like this week is bring the cold down the West Coast but the storms are dry by the time they reach us.
We will be watching for a flip of the PNA back to negative in December. We have a La Nina in place this season which favors a -PNA. That is good news for us as we get closer to true Winter. Until then we will have shots of cold air with light snowfall and plenty of snowmaking. BA
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