The Sun Returns This Week

We picked up 2 inches of snow on Sunday as the storm really didn't produce much precip as it reached the Tahoe Basin. We will start the week cold today with highs not breaking the freezing mark. Then as the ridge of high pressure builds in off the coast we will warm into the 40s with lots of sunshine through next weekend.

Most of the forecast models have the next system approaching this weekend splitting with a piece going into Canada and the other cutting off and sitting off Baja California again. The latest GFS forecast model run holds the trough together and brings it into the Pacific NW.
The next system rolling across the Pacific will arrive around the middle of next week. Most forecast models still show it pulling in moisture from the system off Baja and bringing us a decent sized storm. It may be mild to start if the moisture is pulled up ahead of the system from the South, but the main low should have plenty of cold with it. If the latest GFS were to be right then there would be no system to the South to pull in moisture from, and it would be a quick hitting colder storm.

We are still 8 or 9 days out so it's a little early to be into too much detail on a specific storm, but it's our next chance of much needed snow and will be our focus this week. Beyond that I don't have much confidence in the long-range forecast until the MJO starts to move. Whether or not the MJO moves through the forecasted phases of 8-1-2-3 will have a big affect on the long-range forecast. Below is a link if you want more info on how the MJO can affect weather for the West Coast.

http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf

We are hoping for much more snow in February.